NBA games

ORL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
112–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL31283023112
DET33252625109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home DET
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 39 37 8 2
Franz Wagner S 36 21 7 1
Anthony Black 32 16 4 4
Jalen Suggs S 34 14 4 1
Tristan da Silva S 21 8 3 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 8 11 3
Jonathan Isaac 14 4 3 0
Goga Bitadze 14 4 3 0
Tyus Jones 18 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 40 39 13 11
Tobias Harris S 30 18 5 1
Jalen Duren S 31 16 12 2
Duncan Robinson S 35 9 1 3
Ausar Thompson S 23 8 7 2
Isaiah Stewart 14 8 6 1
Caris LeVert 24 7 1 0
Jaden Ivey 10 3 0 0
Paul Reed 6 1 1 0
Javonte Green 10 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:20 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes 2-foot two point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Duren DET
18%
2 Desmond Bane ORL
11%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Cade Cunningham DET
8%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
14%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 30.6 6.4 9.3
2 Franz Wagner ORL 23.5 6.6 4.4
3 Desmond Bane ORL 21.2 4.5 5.3
4 Jalen Duren DET 21.2 11.8 3.0
5 Jalen Suggs ORL 16.1 4.2 5.3
6 Anthony Black ORL 14.5 3.2 3.1
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.0 6.5 2.5
8 Tobias Harris DET 13.5 4.8 2.8
9 Duncan Robinson DET 12.6 3.0 2.7
10 Ausar Thompson DET 12.6 5.9 2.6
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.5 6.0 1.4
12 Daniss Jenkins DET 11.5 2.6 4.4
13 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.3 4.6 1.7
14 Caris LeVert DET 10.9 2.3 3.4
15 Javonte Green DET 9.7 3.6 1.3
16 Jaden Ivey DET 8.3 2.2 1.1
17 Jett Howard ORL 7.3 1.7 1.0
18 Ronald Holland II DET 6.8 3.3 1.7
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.6 5.3 1.2
20 Paul Reed DET 5.2 4.1 1.0
21 Noah Penda ORL 4.1 2.8 1.0
22 Tyus Jones ORL 3.8 1.3 1.9
23 Chaz Lanier DET 3.6 1.2 0.7
24 Jase Richardson ORL 3.4 1.2 0.9
25 Jonathan Isaac ORL 2.9 3.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.