NBA games

CHI @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
116–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI29333222116
CHA32352630123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home CHA
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 29 25 2 4
Josh Giddey S 33 25 11 9
Tre Jones 27 16 1 4
Nikola Vucevic S 31 13 14 3
Kevin Huerter S 25 11 2 4
Matas Buzelis S 30 8 2 3
Jalen Smith 17 6 5 0
Ayo Dosunmu 23 5 2 2
Patrick Williams 13 5 5 0
Jevon Carter 10 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 32 27 5 1
Miles Bridges S 36 22 8 7
Collin Sexton 26 21 4 3
LaMelo Ball S 29 16 7 8
Kon Knueppel S 32 12 5 4
Sion James 20 9 3 3
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 30 7 5 0
Tre Mann 14 5 1 0
Moussa Diabate 18 4 8 2
Liam McNeeley 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kon Knueppel · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kon Knueppel makes driving layup (Miles Bridges assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mason Plumlee CHA
12%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
9%
4 Kon Knueppel CHA
8%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
6 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI
7%
8 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
7%
9 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
10 Matas Buzelis CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
69%
Free Throw
2%
Jumper
16%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Coby White CHI 26.1 3.5 7.3
2 Miles Bridges CHA 24.3 6.3 4.3
3 Kon Knueppel CHA 24.1 5.6 4.2
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.7 7.0 9.4
5 Josh Giddey CHI 22.7 10.1 10.3
6 Collin Sexton CHA 18.6 2.7 4.6
7 Brandon Miller CHA 18.2 2.8 4.1
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.8 3.1 3.2
9 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.4 7.3 3.0
10 Matas Buzelis CHI 14.2 6.1 1.8
11 Tre Jones CHI 12.7 3.9 4.6
12 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.6 3.6 2.5
13 Tre Mann CHA 12.4 3.6 3.2
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.6 7.8 1.1
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.1 9.7 1.7
16 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.0 2.9 1.6
17 Jalen Smith CHI 9.5 6.1 1.7
18 Sion James CHA 7.6 3.4 1.8
19 Jevon Carter CHI 7.1 1.5 1.3
20 Patrick Williams CHI 6.7 2.9 1.5
21 Liam McNeeley CHA 5.4 2.3 1.2
22 Julian Phillips CHI 3.2 1.9 0.6
23 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.0 2.2 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.