NBA games

CLE @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
123130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE23392833123
ATL33273733130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home ATL
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 35 42 3 3
Evan Mobley S 34 20 14 7
De'Andre Hunter S 32 16 4 1
Darius Garland S 33 15 5 10
Jaylon Tyson 21 9 2 1
Jarrett Allen S 28 8 8 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 11 5 1 0
Dean Wade 19 5 3 1
Lonzo Ball 17 3 5 4
Larry Nance Jr. 10 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 35 30 3 1
Jalen Johnson S 39 29 12 12
Onyeka Okongwu S 34 18 7 4
Vit Krejci 21 14 2 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 27 14 3 1
Mouhamed Gueye 24 12 3 2
Dyson Daniels S 37 10 8 9
Luke Kennard 16 3 0 2
Keaton Wallace 9 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
11%
2 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
4 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
8%
7 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
8%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
61%
Jumper
13%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 27.2 6.1 6.3
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.6 10.3 8.8
3 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 22.0 4.1 4.1
4 Evan Mobley CLE 20.1 8.7 3.7
5 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.0 6.1 3.1
6 De'Andre Hunter CLE 18.3 4.4 3.0
7 Darius Garland CLE 14.9 2.7 5.7
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.6 7.8 1.8
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE 13.1 5.4 2.0
10 Vit Krejci ATL 12.0 2.6 2.2
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.9 6.9 6.6
12 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.5 3.8 1.9
13 Luke Kennard ATL 7.7 1.9 2.2
14 Lonzo Ball CLE 7.1 4.0 4.6
15 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.2 1.9 2.6
16 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.8 2.8 0.6
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.8 3.6 1.4
18 Dean Wade CLE 5.3 3.3 1.2
19 Tyrese Proctor CLE 4.7 1.3 1.0
20 Jacob Toppin ATL 4.4 1.5 1.0
21 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.6 2.0 0.9
22 Asa Newell ATL 3.3 1.5 0.6
23 Thomas Bryant CLE 2.1 1.5 0.3
24 N'Faly Dante ATL 1.9 2.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.