NBA games

PHX @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
112–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX41261629112
SAC16292827100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home SAC
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 29 21 16 4
Collin Gillespie S 34 21 3 9
Devin Booker S 39 19 7 6
Dillon Brooks S 33 13 3 0
Jamaree Bouyea 19 11 1 0
Royce O'Neale S 32 9 4 4
Oso Ighodaro 15 8 2 0
Jordan Goodwin 24 7 8 2
Nick Richards 6 3 0 0
Isaiah Livers 9 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keegan Murray S 38 19 8 3
Russell Westbrook S 31 19 8 3
Malik Monk 23 15 1 2
Precious Achiuwa 25 14 5 3
Zach LaVine S 32 13 2 2
DeMar DeRozan S 37 10 3 3
Keon Ellis 23 6 2 1
Drew Eubanks S 14 4 9 2
Maxime Raynaud 9 0 2 0
Nique Clifford 9 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dillon Brooks · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Dillon Brooks makes 12-foot jumper (Mark Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dillon Brooks PHX
15%
2 Devin Booker PHX
10%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
10%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
5 Mark Williams PHX
9%
6 DeMar DeRozan SAC
9%
7 Nick Richards PHX
8%
8 Drew Eubanks SAC
8%
9 Russell Westbrook SAC
7%
10 Jordan Goodwin PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
46%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 25.4 4.7 7.3
2 Dillon Brooks PHX 22.8 3.8 2.7
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 18.6 3.2 3.6
4 Zach LaVine SAC 16.0 3.7 2.8
5 Russell Westbrook SAC 14.9 6.3 6.9
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.4 6.1 1.3
7 Collin Gillespie PHX 13.0 4.2 5.0
8 Mark Williams PHX 12.4 8.5 1.7
9 Royce O'Neale PHX 11.4 4.5 2.4
10 Malik Monk SAC 11.2 2.6 1.9
11 Jordan Goodwin PHX 9.9 5.1 2.4
12 Precious Achiuwa SAC 6.9 4.7 1.2
13 Drew Eubanks SAC 6.5 3.0 0.9
14 Maxime Raynaud SAC 5.3 3.2 0.7
15 Dario Saric SAC 5.2 1.9 0.7
16 Keon Ellis SAC 5.0 1.6 0.8
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.9 3.6 1.8
18 Nique Clifford SAC 4.7 2.2 1.6
19 Nick Richards PHX 4.6 4.5 0.7
20 Khaman Maluach PHX 4.2 2.2 0.7
21 Isaiah Livers PHX 4.1 2.5 0.8
22 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.7 1.5 1.0
23 Rasheer Fleming PHX 3.7 2.1 0.7
24 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.7 1.4 0.7
25 Devin Carter SAC 1.9 1.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.