NBA games

SA @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
115–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA29273524115
POR30243216102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home POR
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 33 37 6 8
Devin Vassell S 35 23 6 0
Harrison Barnes S 36 13 5 0
Julian Champagnie S 32 12 11 2
Keldon Johnson 23 11 10 2
Dylan Harper 17 7 3 2
Luke Kornet S 28 6 9 2
Jeremy Sochan 8 2 3 0
Lindy Waters III 8 2 1 0
Kelly Olynyk 12 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 40 37 6 8
Jerami Grant S 32 13 4 2
Shaedon Sharpe 22 11 5 2
Toumani Camara S 30 10 5 1
Robert Williams III 20 10 5 1
Donovan Clingan S 26 9 11 1
Kris Murray 29 8 6 3
Sidy Cissoko S 18 3 2 2
Caleb Love 12 1 1 1
Yang Hansen 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 11-foot pullup jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
2 Deni Avdija POR
11%
3 De'Aaron Fox SA
10%
4 Jerami Grant POR
9%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
9%
6 Luke Kornet SA
8%
7 Devin Vassell SA
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
49%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SA 26.3 4.4 7.0
2 Deni Avdija POR 26.1 6.3 6.5
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.5 5.1 2.6
4 Jerami Grant POR 19.9 4.1 3.7
5 Jrue Holiday POR 19.0 4.3 8.0
6 Harrison Barnes SA 15.0 3.9 2.3
7 Devin Vassell SA 13.4 3.5 2.9
8 Keldon Johnson SA 13.0 6.7 2.2
9 Toumani Camara POR 13.0 5.5 2.7
10 Dylan Harper SA 12.7 3.1 4.0
11 Donovan Clingan POR 12.2 10.1 1.9
12 Julian Champagnie SA 12.1 3.9 1.7
13 Luke Kornet SA 9.7 6.3 1.8
14 Caleb Love POR 8.4 3.2 2.1
15 Jeremy Sochan SA 6.8 3.3 1.8
16 Kris Murray POR 6.8 4.1 1.3
17 Sidy Cissoko POR 6.3 2.3 1.6
18 Robert Williams III POR 5.1 4.6 0.8
19 Kelly Olynyk SA 4.9 2.6 2.3
20 David Jones Garcia SA 4.5 2.1 1.8
21 Duop Reath POR 4.2 1.3 0.6
22 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.7 0.7 0.7
23 Lindy Waters III SA 3.6 1.2 0.8
24 Yang Hansen POR 3.6 1.9 0.9
25 Carter Bryant SA 3.3 1.5 0.6
26 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 2.1 0.7
27 Riley Minix SA 2.5 1.0 0.8
28 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.9 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.