NBA games

HOU @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
104–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU22252730104
GS25341724100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home GS
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard S 37 31 9 5
Alperen Sengun S 35 16 6 6
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 15 4 2
Aaron Holiday 29 14 3 3
Amen Thompson S 38 10 14 3
Clint Capela 18 6 12 2
Jae'Sean Tate 12 5 2 0
JD Davison 10 4 0 2
Josh Okogie S 24 3 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 33 21 5 5
Will Richard S 28 18 6 0
Stephen Curry S 33 14 6 5
Brandin Podziemski 28 14 4 2
Quinten Post 22 12 5 1
Draymond Green S 34 12 9 8
Moses Moody S 30 9 7 1
Buddy Hield 15 0 3 0
Gui Santos 6 0 1 1
Gary Payton II 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jimmy Butler III makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III GS
16%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
14%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
4 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
5 Stephen Curry GS
9%
6 Gary Payton II GS
8%
7 Reed Sheppard HOU
7%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Quinten Post GS
7%
10 Moses Moody GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
15%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.7 4.1 4.4
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.5 10.7 6.9
3 Amen Thompson HOU 21.3 7.0 5.4
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.9 5.7 5.1
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.7 7.6 2.1
6 Reed Sheppard HOU 14.6 3.0 3.4
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.9 3.9 2.3
8 Moses Moody GS 11.6 3.4 1.7
9 Tari Eason HOU 10.4 4.1 1.8
10 Draymond Green GS 9.3 5.6 4.8
11 Quinten Post GS 7.3 3.5 1.4
12 Buddy Hield GS 7.1 2.3 1.7
13 Will Richard GS 6.9 2.5 1.2
14 Josh Okogie HOU 6.6 2.9 1.3
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.6 1.3 1.0
16 Steven Adams HOU 6.3 8.3 1.5
17 Isaiah Crawford HOU 6.0 2.9 1.0
18 Pat Spencer GS 5.7 1.9 2.4
19 JD Davison HOU 5.6 1.6 1.7
20 Gary Payton II GS 4.8 3.4 1.7
21 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.4 3.3 0.9
22 Jeff Green HOU 4.3 2.2 0.7
23 Gui Santos GS 3.6 1.9 0.6
24 Clint Capela HOU 3.3 5.0 0.6
25 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.