NBA games

MEM @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
133–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MEM2528393011133
NO392932226128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NO
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 36 27 5 2
Jaylen Wells S 32 25 3 1
Zach Edey S 35 21 15 0
Santi Aldama 24 14 5 4
Cedric Coward S 34 12 9 4
Jock Landale 18 11 3 1
Cam Spencer 19 11 2 7
John Konchar 14 7 2 0
Vince Williams Jr. S 35 5 4 17
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 17 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jose Alvarado 27 24 5 2
Saddiq Bey S 39 18 10 2
Zion Williamson S 32 17 5 4
Jordan Hawkins 15 14 1 1
Trey Murphy III S 38 12 4 6
Micah Peavy 21 11 4 2
Derik Queen S 23 10 2 9
Jeremiah Fears S 26 10 2 3
Yves Missi 29 6 6 3
Bryce McGowens 14 6 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Saddiq Bey · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:55 Q1
"Saddiq Bey makes 12-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Derik Queen NO
14%
2 Zion Williamson NO
13%
3 Jeremiah Fears NO
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Saddiq Bey NO
10%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
7 Zach Edey MEM
9%
8 Cedric Coward MEM
8%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
10 Vince Williams Jr. MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
23%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 23.6 6.1 3.6
2 Zion Williamson NO 22.2 5.7 4.7
3 Jeremiah Fears NO 18.9 4.3 3.0
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.6 5.8 2.5
5 Derik Queen NO 18.0 7.9 5.3
6 Santi Aldama MEM 16.9 6.3 3.3
7 Saddiq Bey NO 14.0 6.4 2.7
8 Cedric Coward MEM 13.8 6.0 3.2
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.7 3.1 2.0
10 Cam Spencer MEM 11.4 2.5 3.3
11 Jock Landale MEM 11.3 5.6 2.0
12 Zach Edey MEM 10.2 7.4 1.3
13 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 9.6 5.6 5.3
14 Jose Alvarado NO 8.9 3.0 3.5
15 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 6.9 2.4 2.6
16 Yves Missi NO 5.8 5.2 1.2
17 Micah Peavy NO 5.3 2.6 1.1
18 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.0 1.6 1.0
19 Bryce McGowens NO 4.3 1.4 0.7
20 GG Jackson MEM 4.1 2.0 0.6
21 Kevon Looney NO 2.9 3.4 1.0
22 John Konchar MEM 2.7 2.7 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.