NBA games

MIN @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
105–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN17223234105
OKC24252935113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home OKC
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 31 8 5
Terrence Shannon Jr. 17 18 2 1
Naz Reid 24 12 2 3
Donte DiVincenzo S 31 11 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 30 10 6 3
Julius Randle S 33 10 8 4
Rob Dillingham 12 6 1 2
Rudy Gobert S 32 5 12 3
Mike Conley 13 2 0 2
Jaylen Clark 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 40 6 6
Isaiah Hartenstein S 28 15 7 2
Ajay Mitchell 24 13 2 3
Chet Holmgren S 29 12 9 2
Jaylin Williams 12 9 5 2
Cason Wallace S 32 9 3 2
Isaiah Joe 12 5 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 32 5 1 1
Alex Caruso 22 5 2 0
Kenrich Williams 13 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
12%
4 Julius Randle MIN
11%
5 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
37%
Jumper
21%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.1 5.1 6.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.0 4.9 4.6
3 Julius Randle MIN 24.0 7.6 5.8
4 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.5 4.4 4.5
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.8 7.4 2.1
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.4 5.1 2.9
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.4 10.8 3.6
8 Naz Reid MIN 12.7 6.1 2.1
9 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 12.6 3.9 3.0
10 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.0 2.8 2.1
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 10.5 1.7
12 Cason Wallace OKC 9.9 2.8 2.2
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.0 3.4 1.1
14 Mike Conley MIN 6.2 1.8 2.8
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.0 4.1 2.4
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.0 2.1 2.4
17 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 5.8 2.3 1.7
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 4.8 2.5 0.7
19 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.3 1.7 1.7
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.9 2.0 1.0
21 Bones Hyland MIN 3.0 1.1 1.0
22 Leonard Miller MIN 2.8 1.4 0.7
23 Johnny Juzang MIN 2.7 1.1 0.3
24 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.5 1.1 0.6
25 Joan Beringer MIN 2.1 1.4 0.2
26 Joe Ingles MIN 1.3 0.4 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.