NBA games

IND @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
95–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND2524212595
TOR2129262197

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home TOR
5% 95%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
T.J. McConnell 24 16 7 6
Bennedict Mathurin S 34 15 3 3
Jarace Walker S 27 13 9 2
Pascal Siakam S 31 11 4 2
Jay Huff 28 10 6 0
Andrew Nembhard S 35 9 4 4
Isaiah Jackson S 20 8 2 3
Ben Sheppard 27 8 5 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 14 5 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 38 26 8 0
Scottie Barnes S 36 24 10 4
Immanuel Quickley S 35 15 5 6
Ja'Kobe Walter 32 13 4 1
Jakob Poeltl S 32 8 9 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 16 7 3 0
Jamison Battle 14 2 3 0
Jamal Shead 17 2 2 3
Ochai Agbaji 5 0 0 0
Collin Murray-Boyles S 8 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
14%
2 Bennedict Mathurin IND
13%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
11%
4 Andrew Nembhard IND
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 Pascal Siakam IND
10%
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
8 Isaiah Jackson IND
8%
9 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
10 Ben Sheppard IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
26%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 24.9 5.9 5.1
2 Brandon Ingram TOR 24.7 5.9 4.7
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 20.7 5.7 2.1
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 9.2 5.5
5 Andrew Nembhard IND 19.4 2.4 6.4
6 Immanuel Quickley TOR 19.1 5.2 6.3
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.7 9.0 1.7
8 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 11.1 4.9 1.9
9 Jarace Walker IND 9.9 4.0 1.7
10 T.J. McConnell IND 8.4 2.3 3.0
11 Isaiah Jackson IND 7.8 5.9 1.2
12 Jay Huff IND 7.4 4.2 1.2
13 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 7.0 3.5 1.4
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.0 2.0 5.4
15 Ben Sheppard IND 6.7 3.2 1.6
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.6 5.5 1.1
17 Gradey Dick TOR 6.6 1.9 1.3
18 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.8 1.7 1.0
19 Tony Bradley IND 4.8 2.2 0.9
20 Garrison Mathews IND 4.4 1.1 1.0
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.3 1.4 0.7
22 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.3 2.1 0.8
23 RayJ Dennis IND 3.5 1.1 1.1
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.2 1.0 0.5
25 Taelon Peter IND 2.0 1.2 0.9
26 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 1.8 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.