NBA games

MIL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
103–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL27203026103
MIA29242825106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home MIA
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ryan Rollins S 41 26 7 5
Myles Turner S 31 24 8 2
Gary Trent Jr. S 35 15 1 2
AJ Green S 36 12 5 8
Bobby Portis 21 9 4 2
Kyle Kuzma S 29 8 12 6
Jericho Sims 17 4 2 2
Gary Harris 19 3 4 1
Cole Anthony 11 2 4 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 32 29 5 7
Bam Adebayo S 29 17 11 2
Norman Powell S 29 11 4 2
Andrew Wiggins S 31 11 2 3
Kel'el Ware 26 11 9 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 17 10 4 3
Pelle Larsson 21 8 3 3
Dru Smith 19 5 3 1
Davion Mitchell S 29 2 4 9
Simone Fontecchio 7 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyler Herro · Layup (2 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Tyler Herro makes 5-foot two point shot (Norman Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
11%
3 Kel'el Ware MIA
10%
4 Kyle Kuzma MIL
10%
5 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
6 Norman Powell MIA
9%
7 Myles Turner MIL
8%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 AJ Green MIL
8%
10 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
30%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.5 3.7 3.0
2 Ryan Rollins MIL 22.7 4.8 6.8
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.9 8.1 3.3
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 18.8 5.1 3.4
5 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.6 7.0 6.4
6 Kyle Kuzma MIL 14.8 5.0 2.3
7 Myles Turner MIL 14.5 6.6 1.8
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.1 11.2 1.3
9 Bobby Portis MIL 13.2 5.9 1.6
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.2 3.7 4.7
11 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.8 3.3 6.3
12 AJ Green MIL 10.2 3.1 2.0
13 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.7 1.9 1.7
14 Simone Fontecchio MIA 8.9 3.0 1.8
15 Cole Anthony MIL 8.5 3.5 4.8
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.3 3.4 3.0
17 Dru Smith MIA 7.1 3.2 2.4
18 Pete Nance MIL 5.1 1.9 0.9
19 Jahmir Young MIA 4.7 1.1 1.4
20 Keshad Johnson MIA 4.3 3.0 0.7
21 Gary Harris MIL 4.2 1.8 1.1
22 Mark Sears MIL 3.9 1.4 0.8
23 Jericho Sims MIL 3.5 3.2 0.8
24 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.5 1.6 1.4
25 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 3.1 2.0 0.5
26 Amir Coffey MIL 3.1 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.