NBA games

NY @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
129–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY37352631129
CHA31162826101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHA
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 33 2 3
Josh Hart S 34 22 8 7
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 19 10 3
Miles McBride S 39 19 3 3
Mikal Bridges S 36 18 5 3
Jordan Clarkson 14 8 2 0
Tyler Kolek 15 7 0 3
Mohamed Diawara 2 3 0 2
Ariel Hukporti 2 0 1 1
Pacome Dadiet 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Miller S 28 18 4 3
Miles Bridges S 34 17 4 1
Tre Mann 21 15 3 3
Collin Sexton 17 15 1 2
LaMelo Ball S 27 11 6 4
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 28 8 6 0
Kon Knueppel S 30 6 4 2
Sion James 26 4 2 0
Moussa Diabate 15 4 4 0
Liam McNeeley 15 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Miller · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
2 Mason Plumlee CHA
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
8%
5 Brandon Miller CHA
7%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
7%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
8 Collin Sexton CHA
6%
9 Kon Knueppel CHA
6%
10 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
17%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.2 3.5 7.3
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.0 11.1 4.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 23.5 6.3 4.2
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.4 6.5 9.5
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 23.1 6.3 3.9
6 Collin Sexton CHA 17.5 2.8 5.5
7 Mikal Bridges NY 16.8 4.2 4.3
8 Brandon Miller CHA 16.6 2.3 3.9
9 Josh Hart NY 13.9 6.8 5.4
10 Jordan Clarkson NY 12.6 2.6 2.2
11 Tre Mann CHA 12.0 3.3 3.4
12 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.0 8.7 1.6
13 Miles McBride NY 9.9 2.7 2.4
14 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 9.5 6.9 0.9
15 Sion James CHA 7.3 3.3 1.9
16 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.7 2.1 1.0
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.3 7.1 0.6
18 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.1 2.0 0.8
19 Tyler Kolek NY 3.7 1.4 1.2
20 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.2 1.6 0.7
21 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.8 2.7 0.8
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.7 1.3 0.6
23 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.1 2.2 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.