NBA games

DET @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
114–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET30282531114
BOS24332931117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home BOS
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 42 8 5
Tobias Harris S 27 12 4 3
Jalen Duren S 30 12 16 1
Duncan Robinson S 30 11 2 3
Caris LeVert 24 10 3 3
Ausar Thompson S 26 8 8 2
Jaden Ivey 15 7 4 0
Ronald Holland II 14 6 1 1
Isaiah Stewart 20 6 9 1
Daniss Jenkins 8 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 34 33 10 5
Derrick White S 31 27 7 3
Payton Pritchard S 34 16 5 2
Baylor Scheierman 30 13 3 1
Josh Minott 19 9 5 3
Jordan Walsh S 29 7 6 4
Sam Hauser 17 5 1 1
Anfernee Simons 12 5 1 4
Hugo Gonzalez 7 1 2 1
Amari Williams 15 1 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Duncan Robinson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Duncan Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
3 Jalen Duren DET
14%
4 Tobias Harris DET
12%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
8 Jordan Walsh BOS
8%
9 Duncan Robinson DET
7%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
57%
Jumper
8%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.5 6.2 9.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.4 6.3 4.9
3 Jalen Duren DET 22.4 11.9 3.2
4 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.2 4.3 4.7
5 Derrick White BOS 16.8 4.4 5.8
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.2 2.8 3.5
7 Tobias Harris DET 14.4 4.9 2.7
8 Daniss Jenkins DET 13.0 2.9 4.9
9 Ausar Thompson DET 12.2 5.2 2.4
10 Duncan Robinson DET 11.7 2.9 2.4
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.3 5.9 1.4
12 Javonte Green DET 10.1 3.9 1.4
13 Caris LeVert DET 9.8 2.2 3.4
14 Jaden Ivey DET 8.4 1.9 1.4
15 Ronald Holland II DET 6.9 3.8 1.9
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 6.9 5.1 1.3
17 Josh Minott BOS 6.8 3.5 1.2
18 Paul Reed DET 5.6 4.4 1.2
19 Luka Garza BOS 5.5 3.8 0.7
20 Sam Hauser BOS 5.5 3.1 1.4
21 Chaz Lanier DET 3.9 1.4 0.8
22 Chris Boucher BOS 3.9 2.9 0.6
23 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.8 1.7 0.7
24 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 3.5 1.8 0.8
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.5 1.9 0.7
26 Amari Williams BOS 1.2 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.