NBA games

LAC @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
118–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC38282725118
LAL37322937135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home LAL
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 37 29 5 9
Kawhi Leonard S 28 19 5 3
Kris Dunn S 30 19 0 3
John Collins S 34 18 5 1
Ivica Zubac S 37 10 10 4
Kobe Brown 21 6 0 2
Kobe Sanders 17 6 1 1
Nicolas Batum 22 6 1 0
Chris Paul 9 4 1 1
Cam Christie 2 1 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 43 9 13
Austin Reaves S 35 31 9 3
LeBron James S 32 25 6 6
Rui Hachimura S 31 13 3 0
Jaxson Hayes S 30 8 4 3
Marcus Smart 20 7 3 3
Jake LaRavia 17 4 1 0
Maxi Kleber 14 2 3 0
Drew Timme 1 2 0 0
Dalton Knecht 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rui Hachimura · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
18%
2 Rui Hachimura LAL
15%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
14%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
13%
5 James Harden LAC
13%
6 Kris Dunn LAC
10%
7 John Collins LAC
10%
8 Luka Doncic LAL
6%
9 Nicolas Batum LAC
0%
10 Jahmyl Telfort LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
16%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.1 8.1 9.2
2 James Harden LAC 29.3 5.9 8.1
3 Austin Reaves LAL 26.6 4.9 6.8
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 22.0 4.4 3.4
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 20.2 11.9 3.0
6 Rui Hachimura LAL 14.2 4.2 1.3
7 Marcus Smart LAL 11.3 3.0 3.5
8 John Collins LAC 10.7 4.5 1.1
9 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.6 4.0 2.3
10 Kobe Sanders LAC 8.9 2.2 1.6
11 Kris Dunn LAC 8.6 2.7 3.3
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 8.5 1.6 2.2
13 Nicolas Batum LAC 6.1 3.1 0.9
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 6.0 3.7 0.7
15 Brook Lopez LAC 5.7 1.8 0.9
16 Cam Christie LAC 5.2 2.1 0.9
17 Dalton Knecht LAL 5.2 2.2 0.6
18 Chris Paul LAC 4.6 1.9 3.2
19 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 4.1 4.3 1.2
20 Yanic Konan Niederhauser LAC 3.8 2.5 0.9
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.5 1.8 0.9
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.4 2.2 0.7
23 Jahmyl Telfort LAC 2.4 1.2 0.5
24 Bronny James LAL 2.2 0.9 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.