NBA games

ORL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
144–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL35513523144
PHI35252320103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home PHI
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Black 28 31 1 3
Franz Wagner S 27 21 5 3
Desmond Bane S 29 15 2 6
Jett Howard 18 13 2 1
Wendell Carter Jr. S 22 12 8 1
Tyus Jones 16 10 1 3
Goga Bitadze 20 10 9 2
Noah Penda 22 10 9 2
Tristan da Silva S 17 10 4 3
Jase Richardson 10 7 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 32 20 1 4
Jared McCain 25 15 1 3
Justin Edwards S 22 13 1 1
Dominick Barlow S 31 11 6 2
Eric Gordon 22 10 2 2
Jabari Walker 21 9 5 1
Quentin Grimes S 27 8 3 4
Trendon Watford 11 8 1 1
Johni Broome 17 4 6 2
Andre Drummond S 22 3 12 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes two point shot (Tristan da Silva assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
17%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
10%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Quentin Grimes PHI
9%
6 Orlando Robinson ORL
8%
7 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
46%
Jumper
15%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.8 4.1 6.8
2 Franz Wagner ORL 24.5 6.9 5.1
3 Desmond Bane ORL 21.9 4.9 5.7
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.3 4.0 5.2
5 Quentin Grimes PHI 17.2 3.5 3.7
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.3 6.4 2.6
7 Anthony Black ORL 13.0 3.4 3.3
8 Tristan da Silva ORL 11.6 4.3 1.6
9 Andre Drummond PHI 11.0 10.7 1.3
10 Trendon Watford PHI 10.1 4.7 3.5
11 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.8 4.7 1.5
12 Justin Edwards PHI 6.9 2.9 1.8
13 Jett Howard ORL 5.9 1.8 1.0
14 Jamal Cain ORL 5.0 2.0 0.7
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.8 4.5 1.2
16 Jared McCain PHI 4.6 1.2 0.8
17 Orlando Robinson ORL 4.2 2.3 0.8
18 Noah Penda ORL 4.1 2.7 1.1
19 Jase Richardson ORL 3.5 1.3 1.0
20 Jabari Walker PHI 3.5 2.5 0.9
21 Johni Broome PHI 3.3 2.2 0.5
22 Tyus Jones ORL 3.2 1.3 1.8
23 Hunter Sallis PHI 3.2 1.3 0.8
24 Eric Gordon PHI 2.2 0.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.