NBA games

ATL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
113–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL23322335113
WSH45323421132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home WSH
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 22 22 8 1
Onyeka Okongwu 20 20 3 0
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 17 5 0
Dyson Daniels S 32 11 9 7
Vit Krejci 14 10 1 3
Luke Kennard 15 9 1 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 8 2 4
Mouhamed Gueye 18 7 5 1
Jalen Johnson S 30 7 7 7
Jacob Toppin 7 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 37 46 5 4
Alex Sarr S 38 27 11 0
Corey Kispert S 24 19 3 1
Bub Carrington 22 10 0 6
Khris Middleton S 31 10 7 12
Bilal Coulibaly S 34 9 3 4
Tristan Vukcevic 10 7 2 0
Justin Champagnie 17 4 5 1
Sharife Cooper 3 0 0 0
Malaki Branham 9 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Corey Kispert · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Corey Kispert makes 9-foot two point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
2 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
10%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
6 CJ McCollum WSH
9%
7 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
38%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 25.2 10.6 9.0
2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 23.1 4.3 4.7
3 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 19.8 6.7 3.7
4 Alex Sarr WSH 19.6 8.4 3.6
5 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 19.5 6.2 3.6
6 CJ McCollum WSH 18.3 3.5 3.5
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.3 3.9 2.2
8 Vit Krejci ATL 12.1 3.0 2.3
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.9 7.1 7.2
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 10.9 4.0 3.0
11 Khris Middleton WSH 9.7 3.7 2.5
12 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.9 2.8 1.1
13 Corey Kispert WSH 8.5 2.3 1.7
14 Luke Kennard ATL 8.0 2.2 2.1
15 Bub Carrington WSH 7.6 3.2 4.4
16 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.9 2.4 2.7
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 6.3 4.0 1.6
18 Jacob Toppin ATL 4.7 1.7 1.2
19 Asa Newell ATL 4.6 2.3 0.8
20 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 4.6 2.3 1.0
21 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.1 3.0 0.9
22 Malaki Branham WSH 3.8 1.3 0.6
23 Jamir Watkins WSH 3.6 2.3 0.5
24 Will Riley WSH 3.0 1.7 0.9
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.3 0.5
26 Sharife Cooper WSH 1.9 0.4 0.5
27 AJ Johnson WSH 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.