NBA games

POR @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
127–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR35302933127
GS28442526123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home GS
12% 88%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 40 26 6 13
Caleb Love 38 26 7 5
Donovan Clingan S 27 22 10 4
Toumani Camara S 34 20 7 1
Sidy Cissoko S 23 15 1 2
Robert Williams III 21 8 11 2
Kris Murray 17 5 3 2
Jerami Grant S 31 5 4 2
Rayan Rupert 6 0 3 0
Javonte Cooke 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 38 2 4
Jimmy Butler III S 34 20 8 5
Brandin Podziemski 30 20 0 3
Draymond Green S 34 11 5 7
Moses Moody S 28 10 2 1
Al Horford 18 7 6 3
Quinten Post 17 7 4 1
Gary Payton II 17 6 2 4
Will Richard S 9 2 2 1
Trayce Jackson-Davis 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sidy Cissoko · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Sidy Cissoko makes 2-foot dunk (Jerami Grant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
9%
3 Deni Avdija POR
8%
4 Stephen Curry GS
8%
5 Jerami Grant POR
8%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
7%
7 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
8 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
6%
9 Sidy Cissoko POR
6%
10 Brandin Podziemski GS
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
53%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Deni Avdija POR 27.3 7.2 6.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 26.6 4.0 4.8
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 23.9 5.3 2.8
4 Jimmy Butler III GS 22.1 6.3 5.3
5 Jrue Holiday POR 19.8 4.7 8.1
6 Jerami Grant POR 18.6 4.2 3.3
7 Moses Moody GS 14.9 3.8 2.4
8 Toumani Camara POR 13.7 4.9 2.7
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.3 4.7 3.3
10 Donovan Clingan POR 10.1 10.0 1.2
11 Draymond Green GS 9.7 5.8 5.4
12 Will Richard GS 9.4 2.7 1.5
13 Buddy Hield GS 7.8 2.3 1.8
14 Caleb Love POR 7.7 2.7 1.7
15 Quinten Post GS 7.5 4.0 1.3
16 Al Horford GS 7.0 4.1 1.9
17 Kris Murray POR 6.8 3.7 1.5
18 Pat Spencer GS 6.0 2.1 2.7
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.9 3.6 1.1
20 Yang Hansen POR 4.7 2.6 1.0
21 Robert Williams III POR 4.6 3.7 0.7
22 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.5 2.2 1.1
23 Duop Reath POR 4.3 1.3 0.7
24 Gary Payton II GS 4.0 3.4 1.3
25 Javonte Cooke POR 3.8 1.6 0.8
26 Gui Santos GS 3.4 2.1 0.7
27 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.