NBA games

OKC @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
144112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30374334144
UTAH44242024112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home UTAH
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 30 31 2 8
Isaiah Joe 25 16 0 3
Jaylin Williams 24 15 6 6
Isaiah Hartenstein S 24 12 6 7
Ajay Mitchell 25 12 4 4
Chet Holmgren S 27 11 3 2
Alex Caruso 18 11 0 3
Cason Wallace S 27 10 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 21 9 1 0
Branden Carlson 9 7 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 30 20 3 8
Lauri Markkanen S 35 19 6 3
Kyle Filipowski 26 18 7 2
Ace Bailey S 21 15 2 3
Kevin Love 13 12 1 0
Svi Mykhailiuk S 22 8 2 1
Brice Sensabaugh 17 7 2 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 22 5 10 3
Isaiah Collier 14 5 1 2
Walter Clayton Jr. 12 2 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keyonte George · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Keyonte George makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Keyonte George UTAH
17%
2 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
12%
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
11%
5 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
9%
6 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
9%
7 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
9%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Ace Bailey UTAH
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
41%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.5 4.8 7.3
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.9 5.6 2.5
3 Keyonte George UTAH 24.0 4.5 6.5
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 21.1 8.0 2.1
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 16.6 4.6 5.1
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 15.1 11.0 3.9
7 Isaiah Joe OKC 12.6 3.1 2.0
8 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.1 3.5 6.4
9 Cason Wallace OKC 10.2 2.8 2.4
10 Ace Bailey UTAH 9.8 3.6 1.7
11 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.6 2.8 1.8
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.5 4.2 1.6
13 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 8.9 9.1 4.0
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.3 5.0 1.5
15 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 6.8 2.3 1.3
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.4 4.6 2.3
17 Alex Caruso OKC 6.0 2.5 2.6
18 Kyle Anderson UTAH 5.4 2.2 3.3
19 Kevin Love UTAH 5.0 3.4 1.6
20 Cody Williams UTAH 4.4 1.5 0.7
21 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 4.2 1.5 2.4
22 Branden Carlson OKC 3.9 2.5 0.8
23 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 3.6 3.1 0.6
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 3.5 1.2 0.7
25 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.1 1.8 0.7
26 Chris Youngblood OKC 2.9 1.1 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.