NBA games

DEN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
112–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN25213432112
HOU12372931109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home HOU
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 39 34 10 9
Jamal Murray S 41 26 2 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 12 3 2
Bruce Brown 21 10 1 3
Cameron Johnson S 32 9 5 1
Peyton Watson S 34 9 10 3
Jonas Valanciunas 16 8 1 0
Spencer Jones 22 3 4 0
Aaron Gordon S 3 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Reed Sheppard 37 27 0 4
Amen Thompson S 43 22 7 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 21 11 4
Alperen Sengun S 36 14 5 6
Kevin Durant S 35 13 8 2
Josh Okogie 11 6 2 1
Steven Adams S 23 5 8 2
Aaron Holiday 13 1 0 0
Clint Capela 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
10%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
6 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
7 Alperen Sengun HOU
9%
8 Steven Adams HOU
8%
9 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
10 Peyton Watson DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
22%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.3 11.5 10.1
2 Kevin Durant HOU 25.5 4.7 4.3
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 24.5 10.8 7.4
4 Jamal Murray DEN 21.8 4.8 6.4
5 Amen Thompson HOU 19.3 6.9 5.6
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.4 6.1 1.9
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.3 6.4 2.0
8 Reed Sheppard HOU 12.2 3.1 2.7
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 10.1 2.4 1.5
10 Cameron Johnson DEN 9.7 2.8 2.0
11 Peyton Watson DEN 9.6 4.9 1.4
12 Bruce Brown DEN 7.5 3.7 1.3
13 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.4 4.6 0.9
14 Josh Okogie HOU 6.9 2.3 1.4
15 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.7 1.3 1.6
16 Steven Adams HOU 6.3 7.9 1.4
17 JD Davison HOU 4.1 1.0 1.3
18 Clint Capela HOU 3.9 4.8 0.6
19 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.7 0.4
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.9 1.4 0.6
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.9 0.9 0.8
22 Spencer Jones DEN 2.5 1.0 0.6
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.3 1.2 0.5
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.6 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.