NBA games

MIN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
113–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN24253331113
PHX32301933114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHX
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 41 5 4
Julius Randle S 34 20 5 2
Jaden McDaniels S 40 13 5 2
Rudy Gobert S 35 12 12 4
Naz Reid 27 9 2 2
Donte DiVincenzo S 32 9 2 3
Rob Dillingham 9 5 1 0
Mike Conley 14 3 2 1
Jaylen Clark 8 1 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 37 22 5 1
Collin Gillespie 34 20 7 4
Mark Williams S 26 19 8 0
Royce O'Neale S 31 16 3 2
Devin Booker S 35 16 3 10
Jordan Goodwin 29 13 6 4
Ryan Dunn S 24 4 3 1
Nick Richards 8 2 4 0
Oso Ighodaro 13 2 5 3
Isaiah Livers 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Devin Booker makes driving layup (Royce O'Neale assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
4 Dillon Brooks PHX
10%
5 Mark Williams PHX
10%
6 Devin Booker PHX
10%
7 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
47%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.5 4.6 7.6
2 Julius Randle MIN 25.3 7.5 6.4
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.7 4.3 4.2
4 Dillon Brooks PHX 19.8 3.6 2.7
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 18.1 5.0 3.2
6 Naz Reid MIN 14.6 5.7 2.3
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.0 4.3 3.2
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.0 10.5 1.8
9 Mark Williams PHX 11.8 8.2 1.5
10 Royce O'Neale PHX 10.6 4.9 2.6
11 Collin Gillespie PHX 10.5 4.0 4.7
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 9.9 4.3 2.0
13 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.1 3.9 2.1
14 Mike Conley MIN 7.3 1.8 3.4
15 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.4 2.4 0.8
16 Oso Ighodaro PHX 5.2 3.6 1.1
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.9 1.6 1.7
18 Nick Richards PHX 4.2 3.2 0.6
19 Bones Hyland MIN 4.1 1.5 1.3
20 Isaiah Livers PHX 4.1 2.3 0.8
21 Leonard Miller MIN 3.2 1.5 0.8
22 Johnny Juzang MIN 3.2 1.2 0.4
23 Jamaree Bouyea PHX 3.2 1.5 1.1
24 Khaman Maluach PHX 3.0 1.9 0.4
25 Nigel Hayes-Davis PHX 2.5 1.5 0.6
26 Joan Beringer MIN 2.4 1.5 0.2
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.5 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.