NBA games

NO @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
115–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO34292230115
DAL25243633118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DAL
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 35 25 3 0
Zion Williamson S 30 22 3 2
Jeremiah Fears S 32 21 7 2
Derik Queen S 32 20 7 11
Herbert Jones S 32 7 9 2
Jose Alvarado 20 5 5 6
Yves Missi 16 4 2 0
Saddiq Bey 18 4 3 1
Micah Peavy 13 4 1 0
Jordan Hawkins 12 3 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cooper Flagg S 32 29 7 5
P.J. Washington S 37 24 9 1
Max Christie S 32 23 3 0
Jaden Hardy 14 11 2 0
Naji Marshall 24 9 5 5
Daniel Gafford S 25 8 7 3
Klay Thompson 16 5 2 0
Brandon Williams S 28 5 5 12
Dereck Lively II 18 4 4 2
Moussa Cisse 5 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Herbert Jones · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Herbert Jones makes 2-foot layup (Derik Queen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
4 Jeremiah Fears NO
10%
5 Trey Murphy III NO
9%
6 Derik Queen NO
9%
7 Brandon Williams DAL
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
10 Herbert Jones NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trey Murphy III NO 23.8 6.2 3.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 20.3 7.0 5.0
3 Cooper Flagg DAL 18.6 6.4 3.9
4 Jeremiah Fears NO 17.4 4.1 2.5
5 Naji Marshall DAL 16.5 5.7 2.9
6 P.J. Washington DAL 16.0 7.4 2.8
7 Derik Queen NO 14.8 7.8 4.1
8 Max Christie DAL 13.3 4.4 2.8
9 Brandon Williams DAL 12.9 3.4 4.4
10 Saddiq Bey NO 12.2 4.8 2.0
11 Herbert Jones NO 11.1 3.2 2.6
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.4 6.5 1.4
13 Klay Thompson DAL 9.5 2.7 2.1
14 Jose Alvarado NO 9.1 2.9 2.8
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.5 1.9 1.0
16 Yves Missi NO 6.2 5.1 1.3
17 Dereck Lively II DAL 6.2 6.1 1.6
18 Moussa Cisse DAL 5.4 4.7 0.7
19 Jordan Hawkins NO 5.3 1.8 1.1
20 Micah Peavy NO 4.5 2.3 1.0
21 Kevon Looney NO 3.9 3.7 1.2
22 Bryce McGowens NO 3.2 1.2 0.4
23 Dwight Powell DAL 2.5 2.3 0.6
24 Caleb Martin DAL 2.1 1.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.