NBA games

MIA @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
143–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA36343241143
CHI32202332107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHI
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kel'el Ware S 28 20 14 1
Norman Powell S 25 19 2 2
Bam Adebayo S 29 18 7 5
Davion Mitchell S 24 16 0 6
Pelle Larsson S 26 16 2 7
Keshad Johnson 29 14 11 1
Dru Smith 18 12 7 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 24 10 7 7
Simone Fontecchio 25 9 2 3
Jahmir Young 6 6 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ayo Dosunmu S 33 23 1 4
Josh Giddey S 31 19 11 9
Jalen Smith 24 14 2 2
Jevon Carter 18 10 1 0
Isaac Okoro S 17 9 2 0
Patrick Williams 18 8 1 2
Matas Buzelis S 19 6 5 1
Nikola Vucevic S 21 6 4 3
Tre Jones 18 6 4 2
Julian Phillips 18 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Matas Buzelis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Josh Giddey CHI
12%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
12%
4 Tre Jones CHI
11%
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
6 Kevin Huerter CHI
8%
7 Isaac Okoro CHI
8%
8 Davion Mitchell MIA
8%
9 Pelle Larsson MIA
8%
10 Norman Powell MIA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
20%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 24.7 4.0 3.3
2 Josh Giddey CHI 24.5 11.3 10.4
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 22.1 7.8 3.8
4 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 20.1 7.3 6.1
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.6 8.4 3.5
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 17.0 3.5 3.8
7 Matas Buzelis CHI 15.5 6.3 1.9
8 Kevin Huerter CHI 14.1 4.7 3.0
9 Tre Jones CHI 13.5 4.4 5.1
10 Pelle Larsson MIA 13.4 3.5 3.9
11 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.6 11.1 1.1
12 Davion Mitchell MIA 12.2 3.1 7.1
13 Isaac Okoro CHI 10.7 3.3 1.9
14 Jalen Smith CHI 9.8 6.4 1.6
15 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.0 2.9 1.4
16 Jevon Carter CHI 8.2 2.0 1.7
17 Patrick Williams CHI 7.7 3.1 1.7
18 Dru Smith MIA 6.6 2.5 2.9
19 Jahmir Young MIA 4.6 0.9 1.5
20 Myron Gardner MIA 4.4 2.8 0.7
21 Dalen Terry CHI 4.0 2.4 1.6
22 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.4 2.6 1.2
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.9 1.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.