NBA games

WSH @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
110–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH20273033110
TOR31264835140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home TOR
3% 97%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 26 20 3 3
Tre Johnson 19 14 2 2
Cam Whitmore 17 11 2 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 26 9 3 2
Malaki Branham 5 9 1 0
Corey Kispert 19 9 3 1
Justin Champagnie 18 7 3 4
Bub Carrington 16 7 2 3
Jamir Watkins 9 5 0 0
Kyshawn George S 29 5 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 30 24 8 6
RJ Barrett S 29 24 8 4
Scottie Barnes S 30 23 5 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 23 7 2
Immanuel Quickley S 30 17 2 7
Jamal Shead 16 7 1 10
Gradey Dick 19 6 1 1
Garrett Temple 4 4 1 1
Ochai Agbaji 16 4 1 0
Jakob Poeltl S 19 3 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bilal Coulibaly · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
12%
3 Brandon Ingram TOR
12%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
6 CJ McCollum WSH
10%
7 Ochai Agbaji TOR
9%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
8%
9 Immanuel Quickley TOR
8%
10 Khris Middleton WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
32%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.9 6.5 4.8
2 RJ Barrett TOR 21.8 5.2 5.0
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.8 9.4 6.2
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR 18.1 4.9 6.4
5 Kyshawn George WSH 17.6 5.0 5.0
6 CJ McCollum WSH 17.5 3.5 3.1
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.9 8.6 2.2
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 11.2 4.6 3.3
9 Tre Johnson WSH 10.2 3.1 1.4
10 Khris Middleton WSH 9.9 3.9 2.3
11 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 9.2 4.2 1.9
12 Cam Whitmore WSH 8.0 2.7 0.8
13 Bub Carrington WSH 7.5 3.4 4.1
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.2 2.5 5.1
15 Gradey Dick TOR 7.1 2.3 1.2
16 Corey Kispert WSH 6.7 2.1 1.5
17 Jamison Battle TOR 4.9 1.6 0.8
18 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.6 1.8 1.0
19 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.8 1.9 0.7
20 Ochai Agbaji TOR 3.2 1.9 0.7
21 Malaki Branham WSH 2.6 1.0 0.4
22 Justin Champagnie WSH 2.5 2.3 0.3
23 Jamir Watkins WSH 2.2 2.1 0.3
24 Will Riley WSH 2.0 1.1 0.6
25 Sharife Cooper WSH 1.7 0.3 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 1.3 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.