NBA games

BKN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
113–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN22403021113
BOS28252428105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home BOS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 33 8 2
Noah Clowney S 37 19 3 0
Nic Claxton S 35 18 11 12
Egor Demin S 29 12 6 5
Tyrese Martin 19 10 1 4
Drake Powell 21 9 2 1
Terance Mann S 32 6 6 6
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 4 4 1
Ziaire Williams 16 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 32 26 8 4
Anfernee Simons 33 23 3 4
Neemias Queta S 29 16 12 3
Payton Pritchard S 35 13 3 4
Jordan Walsh S 24 9 6 0
Luka Garza 17 7 4 1
Derrick White S 33 6 1 4
Baylor Scheierman 11 5 2 1
Josh Minott 7 0 1 1
Hugo Gonzalez 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
16%
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
14%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
4 Neemias Queta BOS
10%
5 Derrick White BOS
9%
6 Terance Mann BKN
9%
7 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
8 Payton Pritchard BOS
7%
9 Jordan Walsh BOS
7%
10 Egor Demin BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
9%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 27.9 6.0 4.9
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 24.3 8.0 3.5
3 Payton Pritchard BOS 18.8 3.9 5.1
4 Nic Claxton BKN 16.9 8.6 4.1
5 Derrick White BOS 16.9 4.4 6.0
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 12.4 2.5 3.2
7 Noah Clowney BKN 11.3 3.7 1.7
8 Terance Mann BKN 10.0 3.0 3.7
9 Neemias Queta BOS 9.7 7.9 1.8
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 8.9 2.9 1.2
11 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.7 3.0 2.0
12 Egor Demin BKN 7.1 2.5 3.5
13 Josh Minott BOS 6.9 4.1 1.4
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.3 5.6 1.7
15 Luka Garza BOS 6.3 4.1 1.0
16 Jordan Walsh BOS 5.7 4.1 1.2
17 Drake Powell BKN 5.4 1.8 1.6
18 Sam Hauser BOS 4.9 3.3 1.7
19 Jalen Wilson BKN 4.8 1.2 0.7
20 Chris Boucher BOS 3.7 3.1 0.5
21 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.4 1.9 0.8
22 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.4 2.3 1.0
23 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 2.8 1.5 0.6
24 E.J. Liddell BKN 1.8 1.1 0.2
25 Tyson Etienne BKN 1.6 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.