NBA games

IND @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
109–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND31242628109
CLE33293820120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home CLE
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 33 32 1 8
Pascal Siakam S 37 26 9 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 21 7 2
T.J. McConnell 17 10 3 4
Jarace Walker 17 6 4 0
Jay Huff 26 5 5 0
Isaiah Jackson S 18 3 4 0
Tony Bradley 4 2 0 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 12 2 3 0
Ben Sheppard S 25 2 5 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 32 9 5
Evan Mobley S 35 22 12 4
De'Andre Hunter S 28 20 7 1
Darius Garland S 27 20 2 7
Jaylon Tyson S 27 14 8 3
Larry Nance Jr. 19 4 2 1
Dean Wade 20 4 3 1
Craig Porter Jr. 11 2 1 1
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 12 2 0 0
Tyrese Proctor 1 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Andre Hunter · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"De'Andre Hunter makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bennedict Mathurin IND
14%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE
11%
6 Andrew Nembhard IND
9%
7 Isaiah Jackson IND
9%
8 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE
8%
9 Ben Sheppard IND
7%
10 Darius Garland CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
39%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 29.1 5.7 6.7
2 Pascal Siakam IND 24.9 5.2 5.3
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND 22.6 6.2 2.3
4 Evan Mobley CLE 21.8 8.4 4.2
5 De'Andre Hunter CLE 19.6 4.8 3.3
6 Andrew Nembhard IND 18.3 2.7 6.4
7 Darius Garland CLE 13.6 2.9 4.8
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.1 3.6 1.8
9 Jarace Walker IND 10.6 4.9 2.5
10 Isaiah Jackson IND 9.3 7.0 1.3
11 Lonzo Ball CLE 8.4 3.8 4.9
12 Ben Sheppard IND 7.6 3.4 1.5
13 T.J. McConnell IND 7.6 2.3 3.0
14 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.7 3.4 2.8
15 Dean Wade CLE 6.6 4.1 1.9
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl IND 6.5 5.6 1.1
17 Jay Huff IND 6.4 3.7 1.0
18 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 6.0 3.0 0.9
19 Garrison Mathews IND 5.8 1.3 1.3
20 Tony Bradley IND 5.3 3.0 1.0
21 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.3 1.4 1.4
22 RayJ Dennis IND 4.6 1.5 1.5
23 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 3.4 2.5 1.1
24 Thomas Bryant CLE 3.1 2.3 0.6
25 Taelon Peter IND 2.5 1.4 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.