NBA games

GS @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
109–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS18293032109
SA20253429108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home SA
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 49 4 2
Jimmy Butler III S 35 21 8 1
Will Richard S 16 10 1 0
Brandin Podziemski 30 10 3 3
Draymond Green S 33 6 8 8
Gary Payton II 16 6 3 2
Moses Moody S 30 4 3 1
Quinten Post 7 3 2 0
Al Horford 24 0 3 0
Buddy Hield 14 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 38 26 12 4
De'Aaron Fox S 33 24 4 10
Julian Champagnie 23 14 2 0
Stephon Castle S 36 13 9 6
Devin Vassell S 32 11 3 2
Harrison Barnes S 28 7 4 1
Jeremy Sochan 13 5 3 2
Keldon Johnson 19 4 5 3
Luke Kornet 17 4 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
De'Aaron Fox · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"De'Aaron Fox makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SA
13%
2 Stephon Castle SA
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
5 Stephen Curry GS
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Will Richard GS
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
33%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.7 12.4 5.1
2 Stephen Curry GS 26.1 4.0 4.5
3 De'Aaron Fox SA 23.3 4.5 5.7
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.9 6.2 8.6
5 Jimmy Butler III GS 19.1 5.4 5.0
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 15.0 6.3 2.8
7 Devin Vassell SA 13.6 3.9 2.1
8 Brandin Podziemski GS 13.3 4.4 3.8
9 Harrison Barnes SA 12.3 3.2 2.5
10 Keldon Johnson SA 11.5 5.9 1.6
11 Luke Kornet SA 11.1 6.8 1.9
12 Moses Moody GS 11.0 3.2 2.0
13 Julian Champagnie SA 10.2 4.7 1.7
14 Draymond Green GS 9.1 4.5 5.0
15 Will Richard GS 8.7 2.4 1.6
16 Al Horford GS 7.3 3.8 1.5
17 Quinten Post GS 6.7 3.9 1.1
18 Buddy Hield GS 6.1 1.7 1.5
19 Jeremy Sochan SA 5.9 2.4 1.3
20 Pat Spencer GS 5.4 1.9 1.9
21 Lindy Waters III SA 4.8 1.6 0.9
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.7 2.9 1.1
23 Carter Bryant SA 3.3 1.5 0.5
24 Gui Santos GS 2.8 1.4 0.6
25 Jordan McLaughlin SA 2.7 0.9 1.0
26 Gary Payton II GS 2.6 2.2 1.0
27 Kelly Olynyk SA 2.4 1.4 1.1
28 Harrison Ingram SA 2.3 1.6 0.3
29 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.3 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.