NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
133–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
LAC34283121910133
DAL3124312894127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 51 41 14 11
Ivica Zubac S 46 27 11 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 37 21 3 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 40 15 4 0
Kris Dunn S 32 9 2 5
John Collins S 24 8 3 0
Nicolas Batum 25 7 2 0
Kobe Sanders 14 3 1 1
Jordan Miller 11 2 2 0
Brook Lopez 10 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell 39 28 6 5
Naji Marshall S 47 28 8 2
Cooper Flagg S 48 16 5 0
Klay Thompson 28 13 2 2
Daniel Gafford S 27 10 8 1
Max Christie S 37 10 7 0
Moussa Cisse 11 9 3 0
Brandon Williams S 18 7 2 5
Dereck Lively II 17 4 5 0
Caleb Martin 18 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 1-foot layup (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
2 James Harden LAC
13%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
12%
4 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
5 Brandon Williams DAL
10%
6 Max Christie DAL
9%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 John Collins LAC
8%
10 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
31%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 24.9 5.9 8.3
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 17.3 6.6 3.9
3 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.3 11.8 2.4
4 Max Christie DAL 13.8 4.0 3.2
5 D'Angelo Russell DAL 13.2 3.2 5.3
6 John Collins LAC 12.2 5.1 1.4
7 Naji Marshall DAL 11.6 4.3 2.4
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 10.8 3.5 1.4
9 Brandon Williams DAL 10.2 2.8 3.1
10 Kris Dunn LAC 9.8 2.9 2.0
11 Jordan Miller LAC 8.6 3.6 0.9
12 Daniel Gafford DAL 8.6 5.9 1.2
13 Klay Thompson DAL 8.1 2.9 1.9
14 Kobe Sanders LAC 6.9 1.8 1.3
15 Brook Lopez LAC 6.6 2.9 0.8
16 Bogdan Bogdanovic LAC 6.6 2.4 2.5
17 Cam Christie LAC 5.5 1.9 1.0
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.5 0.9
19 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.9 3.0 1.0
20 Dereck Lively II DAL 4.7 5.1 1.4
21 Kobe Brown LAC 4.1 3.0 0.9
22 Moussa Cisse DAL 4.1 4.4 0.6
23 Ryan Nembhard DAL 4.1 1.1 2.6
24 Chris Paul LAC 3.4 1.3 3.3
25 Dwight Powell DAL 3.3 2.2 0.8
26 Caleb Martin DAL 2.6 1.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.