NBA games

LAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
118–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL35303023118
NO25272527104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home NO
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 39 31 4 7
Luka Doncic S 40 24 7 12
Deandre Ayton S 36 20 16 2
Rui Hachimura S 35 14 4 0
Marcus Smart S 34 13 5 5
Jake LaRavia 22 6 3 0
Dalton Knecht 10 5 1 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 11 3 2 1
Jaxson Hayes 12 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 39 35 7 0
Jeremiah Fears S 29 19 4 3
Herbert Jones S 34 13 5 3
Saddiq Bey S 37 11 7 7
Derik Queen 29 9 10 5
Jose Alvarado 21 8 2 2
Karlo Matkovic 13 4 3 0
Jordan Hawkins 9 3 3 1
Kevon Looney S 11 2 0 2
Micah Peavy 7 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:31 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 22-foot three point jumper (Deandre Ayton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
13%
2 Deandre Ayton LAL
13%
3 Jeremiah Fears NO
12%
4 Luka Doncic LAL
11%
5 Rui Hachimura LAL
11%
6 Trey Murphy III NO
10%
7 Saddiq Bey NO
8%
8 Kevon Looney NO
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 31.7 8.1 9.2
2 Austin Reaves LAL 27.0 4.9 9.0
3 Trey Murphy III NO 20.6 6.2 4.1
4 Deandre Ayton LAL 17.8 8.8 1.7
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.4 4.2 2.0
6 Jeremiah Fears NO 15.4 3.6 3.7
7 Jake LaRavia LAL 13.6 5.0 3.5
8 Saddiq Bey NO 12.5 4.0 1.8
9 Derik Queen NO 12.1 5.9 2.6
10 Marcus Smart LAL 11.6 2.7 3.7
11 Herbert Jones NO 10.8 3.2 2.6
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.5 2.9 1.2
13 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.3 6.0 2.0
14 Yves Missi NO 7.2 6.3 1.3
15 Jose Alvarado NO 7.2 2.5 2.5
16 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 4.2 1.2
17 Jordan Hawkins NO 4.9 1.7 0.9
18 Karlo Matkovic NO 4.8 2.5 0.8
19 Bronny James LAL 4.5 1.9 1.7
20 Kevon Looney NO 4.3 3.5 1.3
21 Micah Peavy NO 4.2 2.6 1.1
22 Maxi Kleber LAL 3.8 2.9 0.7
23 Bryce McGowens NO 3.0 1.0 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.