NBA games

SAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
110–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30313019110
MIN35263132124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIN
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 39 34 11 3
Zach LaVine S 36 25 6 3
Dennis Schroder 28 14 6 6
Russell Westbrook S 31 13 10 14
Keon Ellis 22 9 1 0
DeMar DeRozan S 34 6 3 5
Drew Eubanks 7 5 3 0
Precious Achiuwa S 20 4 3 0
Malik Monk 16 0 1 0
Nique Clifford 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 30 4 4
Julius Randle S 32 26 11 5
Donte DiVincenzo S 30 20 6 5
Jaden McDaniels S 31 13 4 3
Naz Reid 25 12 12 4
Rudy Gobert S 34 11 8 1
Mike Conley 18 6 1 3
Jaylen Clark 22 5 1 0
Leonard Miller 1 1 1 0
Rob Dillingham 9 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes 3-foot layup (Jaden McDaniels assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Julius Randle MIN
9%
7 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
8 Zach LaVine SAC
8%
9 Dennis Schroder SAC
8%
10 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
41%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 27.1 7.3 7.0
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.4 4.5 3.8
3 Zach LaVine SAC 22.7 3.7 2.6
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 20.5 3.6 2.9
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 19.1 5.0 2.9
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 18.3 6.4 6.5
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.8 11.1 4.1
8 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 14.8 3.6 3.8
9 Malik Monk SAC 12.8 2.4 2.4
10 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.7 11.0 1.8
11 Dennis Schroder SAC 12.0 3.4 5.9
12 Naz Reid MIN 11.9 5.0 2.1
13 Nique Clifford SAC 8.9 3.7 2.6
14 Mike Conley MIN 7.5 2.5 4.0
15 Drew Eubanks SAC 7.3 3.5 0.8
16 Keon Ellis SAC 6.9 2.1 1.1
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.1 1.3 2.9
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 6.0 2.2 1.2
19 Precious Achiuwa SAC 5.8 4.9 0.9
20 Johnny Juzang MIN 5.6 2.2 0.6
21 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.8 3.6 0.9
22 Leonard Miller MIN 4.7 2.4 0.8
23 Bones Hyland MIN 3.9 1.0 1.3
24 Dario Saric SAC 3.8 1.4 0.4
25 Joan Beringer MIN 3.6 3.2 0.4
26 Devin Carter SAC 3.4 1.8 1.3
27 Joe Ingles MIN 2.1 0.5 1.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.