NBA games

CHA @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
134–147
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CHA333629315134
MIL3427422618147

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIL
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 42 32 7 2
Kon Knueppel S 41 32 3 3
LaMelo Ball S 27 16 3 10
Moussa Diabate S 43 15 11 1
Collin Sexton 16 14 1 4
Sion James S 42 12 7 3
Tre Mann 29 9 7 7
Mason Plumlee 10 4 0 0
Antonio Reeves 4 0 0 0
Pat Connaughton 10 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 39 29 10 5
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 40 25 7 18
Ryan Rollins S 34 20 8 4
Myles Turner S 33 18 3 1
AJ Green S 26 13 0 2
Bobby Portis 19 12 4 1
Cole Anthony 19 10 3 5
Gary Harris 23 10 1 0
Gary Trent Jr. 21 8 0 1
Jericho Sims 10 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ryan Rollins · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Ryan Rollins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
13%
2 Collin Sexton CHA
10%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
9%
5 Myles Turner MIL
9%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
9%
7 LaMelo Ball CHA
9%
8 Kyle Kuzma MIL
8%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
42%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 32.0 10.3 11.1
2 Miles Bridges CHA 23.2 6.4 4.4
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.3 5.8 8.1
4 Ryan Rollins MIL 20.0 3.8 6.8
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 19.0 6.3 3.5
6 Collin Sexton CHA 18.3 3.1 5.5
7 Kyle Kuzma MIL 13.7 4.2 1.9
8 Myles Turner MIL 13.3 6.2 2.1
9 Tre Mann CHA 11.3 3.3 3.0
10 Cole Anthony MIL 10.5 3.5 4.9
11 Bobby Portis MIL 10.2 4.9 1.7
12 AJ Green MIL 10.1 2.7 2.1
13 Sion James CHA 9.8 2.9 1.6
14 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.1 1.9 2.3
15 Moussa Diabate CHA 9.0 7.5 1.0
16 Pat Connaughton CHA 4.1 1.8 0.7
17 Mark Sears MIL 3.9 0.9 0.7
18 Amir Coffey MIL 2.8 1.6 0.7
19 Mason Plumlee CHA 2.6 2.0 0.5
20 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.6 1.5 0.5
21 Gary Harris MIL 2.6 1.1 0.9
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.6 1.5 0.9
23 Jericho Sims MIL 2.5 2.1 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.