NBA games

POR @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
116–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR32283125116
HOU41283635140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home HOU
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 30 22 10 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 31 19 8 3
Toumani Camara S 33 16 3 0
Jerami Grant 29 13 2 3
Jrue Holiday S 29 13 4 6
Donovan Clingan S 24 9 8 0
Kris Murray 22 5 3 1
Duop Reath 7 5 1 0
Caleb Love 5 5 0 0
Robert Williams III 15 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 30 5 3
Alperen Sengun S 36 25 10 9
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 22 5 3
Amen Thompson S 32 19 2 4
Reed Sheppard 26 13 3 3
Josh Okogie S 21 11 3 1
Aaron Holiday 13 10 0 1
Steven Adams 18 5 11 0
Tari Eason 11 3 5 2
Clint Capela 9 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alperen Sengun · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 15-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
3 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
4 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
5 Alperen Sengun HOU
10%
6 Jrue Holiday POR
10%
7 Deni Avdija POR
9%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant HOU 25.6 4.9 3.9
2 Deni Avdija POR 25.5 6.1 5.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 25.1 10.3 7.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 21.5 5.4 2.1
5 Amen Thompson HOU 21.0 6.4 6.1
6 Jrue Holiday POR 19.9 5.1 8.6
7 Jerami Grant POR 17.7 3.3 2.9
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.8 5.9 1.9
9 Toumani Camara POR 12.9 4.3 3.3
10 Tari Eason HOU 12.2 5.2 1.9
11 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.8 2.8 3.4
12 Donovan Clingan POR 9.2 8.5 1.3
13 Josh Okogie HOU 8.9 2.6 1.6
14 Steven Adams HOU 6.7 8.5 1.7
15 Caleb Love POR 6.2 1.7 1.3
16 JD Davison HOU 6.2 1.7 1.7
17 Kris Murray POR 6.1 2.8 1.2
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.9 1.6 2.0
19 Jeff Green HOU 4.8 2.4 0.6
20 Duop Reath POR 4.3 1.3 0.6
21 Sidy Cissoko POR 4.0 1.6 1.2
22 Clint Capela HOU 4.0 4.3 0.6
23 Robert Williams III POR 3.8 3.3 0.7
24 Matisse Thybulle POR 3.5 0.6 0.6
25 Rayan Rupert POR 3.0 1.9 0.6
26 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.7 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.