NBA games

PHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
105–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI27273615105
DET28352526114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DET
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 40 31 7 3
VJ Edgecombe S 37 18 7 3
Justin Edwards 17 13 1 1
Andre Drummond S 36 12 11 2
Dominick Barlow 29 10 8 3
Quentin Grimes 32 9 1 5
Trendon Watford S 14 5 1 1
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 15 3 1 1
Jabari Walker 10 2 4 0
Adem Bona 9 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Javonte Green S 37 21 9 3
Daniss Jenkins S 35 19 3 8
Duncan Robinson S 31 15 6 3
Isaiah Stewart 23 14 7 1
Caris LeVert 23 14 2 6
Paul Reed S 25 10 8 3
Ronald Holland II S 24 9 5 2
Chaz Lanier 19 6 4 4
Wendell Moore Jr. 18 4 2 2
Bobi Klintman 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul Reed · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Paul Reed makes layup (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI
9%
4 Paul Reed DET
8%
5 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
6 Dominick Barlow PHI
8%
7 Daniss Jenkins DET
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 Trendon Watford PHI
7%
10 Javonte Green DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
13%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 28.3 4.9 8.0
2 Quentin Grimes PHI 19.3 4.3 4.6
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.3 5.5 1.8
4 VJ Edgecombe PHI 14.3 5.4 4.5
5 Duncan Robinson DET 12.2 3.0 2.1
6 Daniss Jenkins DET 10.3 2.3 3.6
7 Trendon Watford PHI 10.2 4.7 3.6
8 Ronald Holland II DET 9.6 3.6 1.9
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 8.8 6.0 1.2
10 Caris LeVert DET 7.9 2.1 2.4
11 Andre Drummond PHI 7.5 8.1 0.9
12 Dominick Barlow PHI 7.2 5.0 1.0
13 Javonte Green DET 7.2 3.7 1.4
14 Paul Reed DET 6.1 4.4 1.2
15 Justin Edwards PHI 5.7 2.1 1.4
16 Tolu Smith DET 5.3 5.3 1.0
17 Chaz Lanier DET 5.2 1.3 1.2
18 Bobi Klintman DET 4.2 2.6 1.1
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.8 1.7 1.3
20 Jabari Walker PHI 3.7 2.8 0.6
21 Adem Bona PHI 3.7 3.8 0.5
22 Johni Broome PHI 2.5 1.7 0.2
23 Eric Gordon PHI 2.5 0.6 0.4
24 Isaac Jones DET 2.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.