NBA games

BKN @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
98–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN3622241698
ORL27272526105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home ORL
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Michael Porter Jr. S 36 24 11 7
Ziaire Williams 36 15 1 0
Nic Claxton S 34 13 5 3
Noah Clowney S 27 12 4 3
Terance Mann S 28 12 0 0
Egor Demin S 18 8 3 2
Drake Powell 22 6 3 3
Day'Ron Sharpe 14 4 5 3
Tyrese Martin 24 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 37 25 6 5
Tristan da Silva S 32 22 9 1
Desmond Bane S 40 19 5 2
Jalen Suggs S 28 14 7 6
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 7 5 3
Goga Bitadze 16 6 8 0
Jett Howard 10 6 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 14 4 5 0
Anthony Black 17 2 0 2
Tyus Jones 13 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Michael Porter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:48 Q1
"Michael Porter Jr. makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Noah Clowney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Michael Porter Jr. BKN
16%
2 Nic Claxton BKN
14%
3 Desmond Bane ORL
13%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
5 Noah Clowney BKN
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Terance Mann BKN
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
9 Egor Demin BKN
7%
10 Ziaire Williams BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
42%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 24.0 6.7 4.4
2 Michael Porter Jr. BKN 23.5 7.0 3.2
3 Desmond Bane ORL 17.4 4.3 5.3
4 Nic Claxton BKN 16.6 7.6 3.7
5 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 14.6 7.7 2.3
6 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.0 3.7 4.7
7 Anthony Black ORL 13.5 4.0 2.8
8 Terance Mann BKN 10.4 3.1 3.3
9 Noah Clowney BKN 9.9 3.7 1.8
10 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.4 3.2 1.3
11 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.0 2.7 0.9
12 Egor Demin BKN 7.6 3.0 3.2
13 Tyrese Martin BKN 6.7 3.1 1.7
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.3 4.7 1.1
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 6.2 1.4 0.9
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.0 4.9 1.5
17 Drake Powell BKN 5.7 1.6 1.4
18 Noah Penda ORL 4.5 2.7 0.9
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.6 1.1
20 Jamal Cain ORL 3.9 1.6 0.4
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.8 2.8 0.7
22 Jase Richardson ORL 3.8 1.4 1.4
23 Tyus Jones ORL 3.1 1.4 1.1
24 Tyson Etienne BKN 2.5 0.9 0.5
25 E.J. Liddell BKN 2.4 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.