NBA games

MIA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
132–140
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA35333628132
NY32463230140

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home NY
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 33 38 5 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 34 23 9 7
Andrew Wiggins S 36 15 7 3
Kel'el Ware S 35 15 10 1
Pelle Larsson S 24 14 2 2
Davion Mitchell S 33 11 4 11
Simone Fontecchio 15 9 2 0
Dru Smith 15 4 2 2
Nikola Jovic 13 3 4 4
Keshad Johnson 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 39 11 4
Landry Shamet 37 36 2 3
Jordan Clarkson 33 24 5 3
Mikal Bridges S 42 15 5 5
Josh Hart 34 12 11 10
Miles McBride S 30 9 4 4
Guerschon Yabusele 6 3 0 1
OG Anunoby S 5 2 3 0
Mitchell Robinson S 14 0 10 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kel'el Ware · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Kel'el Ware makes 1-foot layup (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
14%
2 Andrew Wiggins MIA
14%
3 Norman Powell MIA
11%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Mitchell Robinson NY
10%
7 Davion Mitchell MIA
10%
8 Pelle Larsson MIA
10%
9 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
20%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Norman Powell MIA 23.7 4.2 3.7
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.3 12.6 4.3
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 19.5 7.0 5.5
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 18.9 4.8 3.6
5 Mikal Bridges NY 17.3 4.7 5.1
6 OG Anunoby NY 17.2 5.1 3.0
7 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.5 2.8 6.3
8 Pelle Larsson MIA 11.1 3.0 3.2
9 Josh Hart NY 10.5 6.0 3.8
10 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.2 9.4 1.2
11 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.5 2.8 1.4
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 9.4 4.4 3.5
13 Miles McBride NY 9.0 2.7 2.7
14 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.9 2.1 1.7
15 Landry Shamet NY 7.3 2.4 1.2
16 Dru Smith MIA 6.7 2.1 3.0
17 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.7 8.8 0.8
18 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.8 2.4 1.3
19 Tyler Kolek NY 3.8 1.3 1.3
20 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.7 2.6 0.8
21 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.7 1.7 0.8
22 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.7 1.8 0.8
23 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.2 3.3 0.9
24 Vladislav Goldin MIA 1.8 1.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.