NBA games

OKC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
132–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30402834132
SAC32242718101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SAC
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 33 19 3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 29 30 1 3
Ajay Mitchell S 31 18 5 10
Cason Wallace S 27 15 2 2
Isaiah Joe 28 14 6 1
Chet Holmgren S 21 10 7 1
Jaylin Williams 21 6 3 1
Ousmane Dieng 17 3 5 1
Alex Caruso 22 3 2 5
Chris Youngblood 8 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Russell Westbrook S 35 24 7 9
DeMar DeRozan S 29 18 4 3
Drew Eubanks S 24 16 1 0
Malik Monk 24 15 3 1
Zach LaVine S 29 9 2 2
Maxime Raynaud 24 8 10 1
Precious Achiuwa 17 4 4 0
Keon Ellis 12 3 1 0
Devin Carter 5 2 1 1
Dennis Schroder S 25 2 2 8

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cason Wallace · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Cason Wallace makes 3-foot two point shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
13%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
3 Zach LaVine SAC
9%
4 Dennis Schroder SAC
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
8%
6 Ajay Mitchell OKC
8%
7 Russell Westbrook SAC
8%
8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
8%
9 Drew Eubanks SAC
7%
10 Nique Clifford SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
25%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 30.0 5.6 6.7
2 Chet Holmgren OKC 19.6 8.7 2.7
3 Zach LaVine SAC 18.8 4.1 3.1
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC 17.9 3.9 3.3
5 Ajay Mitchell OKC 17.7 3.9 4.0
6 Russell Westbrook SAC 17.1 7.1 5.6
7 Dennis Schroder SAC 15.0 4.0 5.7
8 Malik Monk SAC 13.1 2.5 2.2
9 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.7 9.8 3.5
10 Cason Wallace OKC 11.1 3.7 3.7
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 11.1 3.1 1.6
12 Nique Clifford SAC 10.4 3.8 3.0
13 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.6 4.0 1.6
14 Alex Caruso OKC 6.7 2.0 1.8
15 Keon Ellis SAC 6.6 1.9 1.1
16 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.1 4.6 2.0
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.2 2.7 1.2
18 Drew Eubanks SAC 5.2 3.6 0.8
19 Chris Youngblood OKC 5.1 1.6 0.9
20 Brooks Barnhizer OKC 4.4 3.3 0.8
21 Precious Achiuwa SAC 4.1 4.7 0.5
22 Maxime Raynaud SAC 4.0 3.1 0.6
23 Dario Saric SAC 3.3 1.4 0.3
24 Devin Carter SAC 3.0 1.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.