NBA games

GS @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
104129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS21282827104
DEN32343330129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DEN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Draymond Green S 26 17 6 4
Jimmy Butler III S 31 16 3 3
Quinten Post 20 14 3 1
Will Richard 19 12 3 2
Pat Spencer 23 10 6 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 19 9 7 3
Buddy Hield 20 8 0 0
Brandin Podziemski S 25 7 2 3
Jonathan Kuminga S 27 6 7 3
Gary Payton II 6 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 28 26 9 9
Jamal Murray S 31 23 4 8
Aaron Gordon S 24 18 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas 16 16 6 1
Christian Braun S 32 12 7 4
Peyton Watson 24 10 3 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 19 7 3 2
Bruce Brown 18 6 1 1
Zeke Nnaji 4 5 0 0
Julian Strawther 7 4 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Moses Moody assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III GS
11%
3 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
4 Jonathan Kuminga GS
10%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
6 Brandin Podziemski GS
7%
7 Christian Braun DEN
7%
8 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
9 Draymond Green GS
7%
10 Will Richard GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
22%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.1 11.7 10.0
2 Jamal Murray DEN 22.3 4.8 4.9
3 Jimmy Butler III GS 18.7 4.8 4.2
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.5 5.3 2.2
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.0 6.7 3.4
6 Christian Braun DEN 13.1 4.3 3.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 12.4 4.3 3.5
8 Moses Moody GS 11.1 3.1 1.7
9 Cameron Johnson DEN 9.7 2.9 1.6
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 9.7 2.1 1.4
11 Draymond Green GS 8.9 5.0 5.3
12 Will Richard GS 8.5 2.8 1.8
13 Peyton Watson DEN 7.9 3.9 1.9
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.8 4.9 1.1
15 Buddy Hield GS 7.4 1.7 1.5
16 Bruce Brown DEN 6.6 3.4 1.7
17 Pat Spencer GS 5.5 2.0 1.7
18 Quinten Post GS 4.9 3.5 1.0
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.8 3.3 1.2
20 Julian Strawther DEN 4.3 1.9 0.6
21 Gary Payton II GS 3.7 2.2 0.8
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.7 1.0 1.0
23 Gui Santos GS 3.3 1.6 0.7
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.0 1.0 0.4
25 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.9 1.1 0.5
26 Spencer Jones DEN 1.3 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.