NBA games

UTAH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
97–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH1530223097
MIN43362533137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIN
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George S 26 18 4 2
Lauri Markkanen S 21 12 2 2
Ace Bailey 24 12 6 3
Isaiah Collier S 26 10 0 3
Kyle Filipowski 22 9 10 2
Kyle Anderson 12 8 4 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 18 6 2 2
Cody Williams 10 5 1 0
Brice Sensabaugh 23 5 0 3
Taylor Hendricks 17 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 26 37 5 1
Jaden McDaniels S 27 22 7 1
Julius Randle S 26 19 10 12
Bones Hyland 9 12 1 3
Rob Dillingham 11 8 2 1
Rudy Gobert S 29 8 9 2
Joan Beringer 9 6 3 0
Leonard Miller 9 6 3 0
Jaylen Clark 20 6 1 2
Mike Conley 17 5 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:52 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 1-foot driving dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
2 Julius Randle MIN
12%
3 Keyonte George UTAH
12%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
11%
5 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Donte DiVincenzo MIN
8%
8 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH
8%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Taylor Hendricks UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
23%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Julius Randle MIN 26.7 6.8 6.1
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 24.7 6.0 3.0
3 Keyonte George UTAH 23.1 3.8 7.0
4 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.1 4.4 3.5
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN 16.9 4.6 2.3
6 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 15.4 3.8 3.9
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.8 10.0 1.7
8 Naz Reid MIN 11.6 4.9 1.8
9 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 10.7 2.9 1.3
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 9.9 2.9 1.9
11 Rob Dillingham MIN 9.6 1.7 4.4
12 Jusuf Nurkic UTAH 9.4 8.7 2.9
13 Mike Conley MIN 7.4 2.4 4.1
14 Walter Clayton Jr. UTAH 7.1 2.9 3.9
15 Johnny Juzang MIN 6.7 2.5 0.6
16 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.5 3.7 1.8
17 Ace Bailey UTAH 6.5 3.0 1.4
18 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 6.1 4.5 1.1
19 Kevin Love UTAH 6.0 3.8 2.2
20 Leonard Miller MIN 5.9 2.8 1.0
21 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.5 2.3 1.2
22 Bones Hyland MIN 5.0 1.6 1.5
23 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.8 1.4 0.9
24 Kyle Anderson UTAH 4.6 1.7 3.0
25 Cody Williams UTAH 4.6 1.5 0.7
26 Joan Beringer MIN 4.2 3.3 0.6
27 Joe Ingles MIN 3.2 0.9 1.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.