NBA games

CHI @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
110–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI25272830110
MIL23303241126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home MIL
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Matas Buzelis S 36 20 8 3
Tre Jones S 29 17 5 4
Nikola Vucevic S 31 16 6 1
Josh Giddey S 35 16 7 14
Kevin Huerter 23 13 3 5
Jalen Smith 17 7 5 3
Ayo Dosunmu 20 7 0 3
Isaac Okoro S 17 6 4 0
Patrick Williams 23 6 6 0
Dalen Terry 5 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 41 15 9
Myles Turner S 31 23 8 0
Ryan Rollins S 31 20 6 4
Cole Anthony 22 11 2 5
Kyle Kuzma 28 11 8 1
Bobby Portis 20 7 5 2
AJ Green S 35 6 4 5
Gary Trent Jr. S 23 5 3 0
Amir Coffey 10 2 2 1
Jericho Sims 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Matas Buzelis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Matas Buzelis makes two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
16%
2 Matas Buzelis CHI
13%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Ryan Rollins MIL
11%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
11%
6 Tre Jones CHI
9%
7 Myles Turner MIL
8%
8 Isaac Okoro CHI
7%
9 AJ Green MIL
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
7%
Layup
56%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.6 12.0 6.2
2 Josh Giddey CHI 24.2 9.6 8.7
3 Ryan Rollins MIL 18.1 3.6 5.4
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.8 10.4 3.8
5 Matas Buzelis CHI 16.4 4.5 1.5
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.7 3.5 2.4
7 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.5 4.3 2.8
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 12.0 2.2 2.4
9 Tre Jones CHI 11.9 3.9 5.5
10 Cole Anthony MIL 11.7 3.6 4.9
11 Kyle Kuzma MIL 11.3 4.9 1.7
12 Myles Turner MIL 11.0 5.9 2.0
13 AJ Green MIL 10.8 2.7 1.6
14 Patrick Williams CHI 9.7 3.3 2.4
15 Bobby Portis MIL 8.5 5.2 1.5
16 Jevon Carter CHI 7.9 1.6 1.4
17 Jalen Smith CHI 7.6 3.8 0.8
18 Isaac Okoro CHI 7.0 2.6 1.6
19 Pete Nance MIL 3.8 1.5 0.7
20 Dalen Terry CHI 3.5 2.3 1.6
21 Noa Essengue CHI 3.4 1.3 0.6
22 Mark Sears MIL 3.3 0.9 0.6
23 Julian Phillips CHI 3.2 1.3 0.5
24 Amir Coffey MIL 2.7 1.1 0.8
25 Gary Harris MIL 2.4 0.9 0.9
26 Jericho Sims MIL 2.2 1.7 0.6
27 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 2.2 1.3 0.6
28 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.0 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.