NBA games

DAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
104–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL24272924104
MEM34402816118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MEM
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Christie S 28 18 1 1
Naji Marshall 25 16 7 4
P.J. Washington S 25 14 6 1
Cooper Flagg S 27 12 6 2
Brandon Williams 22 11 1 3
Moussa Cisse 14 10 8 0
D'Angelo Russell S 16 9 3 5
Jaden Hardy 17 8 3 2
Ryan Nembhard 10 6 0 2
Dwight Powell 9 0 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cedric Coward 28 21 9 4
Ja Morant S 32 21 5 13
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 17 4 0
Santi Aldama 28 16 2 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 24 12 3 1
Cam Spencer 19 12 2 2
Jock Landale S 29 11 7 3
Jaylen Wells S 25 8 5 1
John Konchar 9 0 2 0
Vince Williams Jr. 16 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · Layup (2 pts) · 11:05 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes alley oop layup (D'Angelo Russell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ja Morant MEM
17%
2 Cooper Flagg DAL
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
5 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
9%
7 D'Angelo Russell DAL
8%
8 Jock Landale MEM
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM
8%
10 Max Christie DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
13%
Layup
58%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Ja Morant MEM 23.2 4.9 7.4
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.0 5.5 2.0
3 P.J. Washington DAL 16.8 8.1 3.3
4 Cooper Flagg DAL 15.8 6.3 3.1
5 Cedric Coward MEM 13.9 5.4 2.8
6 D'Angelo Russell DAL 12.2 3.4 5.3
7 Santi Aldama MEM 12.1 6.5 2.0
8 Max Christie DAL 11.8 2.7 2.4
9 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.7 6.5 1.6
10 Jock Landale MEM 11.5 5.0 1.6
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.4 3.7 1.5
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 10.0 3.3 3.3
13 Naji Marshall DAL 8.8 3.4 2.0
14 Klay Thompson DAL 8.4 3.0 1.7
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 8.3 2.5 2.5
16 Cam Spencer MEM 8.3 2.4 3.2
17 Javon Small MEM 7.4 1.9 3.7
18 Brandon Williams DAL 6.6 1.8 1.3
19 GG Jackson MEM 5.2 2.1 0.7
20 Dwight Powell DAL 5.0 3.7 1.0
21 Jaden Hardy DAL 5.0 1.8 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 4.8 3.0 1.0
23 PJ Hall MEM 4.6 3.2 0.6
24 Ryan Nembhard DAL 3.9 1.1 2.7
25 John Konchar MEM 3.5 2.6 0.7
26 Caleb Martin DAL 2.9 1.4 0.7
27 Moussa Cisse DAL 2.9 3.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.