NBA games

CHA @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
108–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA33361920108
MIA53192232126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home MIA
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kon Knueppel S 40 30 8 3
Tre Mann S 35 20 9 7
Miles Bridges S 41 14 12 7
Ryan Kalkbrenner S 27 10 5 0
Moussa Diabate 22 10 11 0
Sion James S 33 10 2 1
Liam McNeeley 19 8 4 1
Pat Connaughton 10 6 5 0
KJ Simpson 13 0 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 27 25 4 3
Andrew Wiggins S 36 22 4 4
Pelle Larsson S 27 19 4 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 18 8 9
Simone Fontecchio 19 11 2 2
Nikola Jovic 19 10 4 3
Davion Mitchell S 32 9 5 5
Kel'el Ware S 30 7 6 0
Dru Smith 16 5 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Norman Powell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Norman Powell makes 25-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Andrew Wiggins MIA
16%
2 Norman Powell MIA
15%
3 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA
13%
4 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
5 Davion Mitchell MIA
11%
6 Kon Knueppel CHA
11%
7 Pelle Larsson MIA
10%
8 Sion James CHA
10%
9 Tre Mann CHA
0%
10 Moussa Diabate CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
29%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 22.9 6.6 3.6
2 Norman Powell MIA 20.9 4.0 3.2
3 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 18.0 5.7 4.7
4 Andrew Wiggins MIA 16.7 4.6 2.8
5 Kon Knueppel CHA 15.2 4.9 2.9
6 Davion Mitchell MIA 11.2 2.7 6.2
7 Kel'el Ware MIA 10.6 7.6 1.3
8 Moussa Diabate CHA 10.5 7.8 0.9
9 Ryan Kalkbrenner CHA 10.3 7.2 1.2
10 Tre Mann CHA 9.6 2.9 2.4
11 Simone Fontecchio MIA 9.2 2.9 1.6
12 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.9 3.6 3.3
13 Sion James CHA 8.6 3.2 1.6
14 Pelle Larsson MIA 7.4 2.3 2.3
15 Dru Smith MIA 6.5 1.9 3.2
16 Keshad Johnson MIA 5.4 2.9 1.8
17 KJ Simpson CHA 5.3 1.5 1.5
18 Liam McNeeley CHA 4.6 1.9 1.4
19 Pat Connaughton CHA 3.3 1.2 0.6
20 Vladislav Goldin MIA 2.1 1.2 0.4
21 Mason Plumlee CHA 1.8 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.