NBA games

HOU @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
110–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU25253228110
SA23283535121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home SA
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 36 25 8 8
Kevin Durant S 37 24 1 2
Reed Sheppard 26 16 0 6
Amen Thompson S 39 14 7 3
Josh Okogie S 25 12 3 0
Tari Eason 25 11 3 2
Jabari Smith Jr. S 27 5 8 2
Steven Adams 20 3 8 1
Clint Capela 6 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Harrison Barnes S 39 24 5 2
Julian Champagnie S 31 22 7 1
Victor Wembanyama S 37 22 8 4
Devin Vassell S 33 15 3 3
Stephon Castle S 36 14 6 13
Jordan McLaughlin 9 9 1 1
Keldon Johnson 27 8 6 4
Lindy Waters III 6 3 1 0
Jeremy Sochan 15 2 2 2
Kelly Olynyk 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephon Castle · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Stephon Castle makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Amen Thompson HOU
15%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Stephon Castle SA
11%
4 Devin Vassell SA
11%
5 Kevin Durant HOU
10%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
10%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
7%
10 Josh Okogie HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
31%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 23.5 11.9 3.7
2 Kevin Durant HOU 22.6 4.9 3.1
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 21.5 8.6 7.5
4 Stephon Castle SA 20.7 5.3 7.2
5 Amen Thompson HOU 19.7 6.0 5.4
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 15.3 4.8 1.6
7 Devin Vassell SA 14.8 4.0 2.9
8 Tari Eason HOU 12.0 4.4 2.1
9 Keldon Johnson SA 11.9 4.1 1.5
10 Reed Sheppard HOU 11.5 3.2 3.2
11 Josh Okogie HOU 10.5 2.7 1.6
12 Julian Champagnie SA 10.3 4.5 1.6
13 Harrison Barnes SA 10.0 2.6 2.7
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.3 1.7 1.9
15 JD Davison HOU 6.3 1.7 1.8
16 Lindy Waters III SA 6.3 1.8 1.2
17 Steven Adams HOU 6.2 7.6 1.4
18 Clint Capela HOU 5.1 5.0 0.6
19 Jeff Green HOU 4.9 2.4 0.6
20 Carter Bryant SA 4.8 1.9 0.8
21 David Jones Garcia SA 3.9 1.8 1.5
22 Jordan McLaughlin SA 3.5 1.3 1.4
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 2.5 1.3 0.4
24 Bismack Biyombo SA 1.6 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.