NBA games

TOR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
109–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR26182936109
ATL2627242097

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ATL
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandon Ingram S 35 20 6 4
RJ Barrett S 33 19 5 4
Immanuel Quickley S 34 18 5 6
Scottie Barnes S 35 14 10 4
Jakob Poeltl S 25 12 10 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 21 12 6 1
Gradey Dick 13 11 1 0
Collin Murray-Boyles 18 3 4 1
Jamison Battle 6 0 0 0
Ja'Kobe Walter 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 33 21 7 4
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 30 20 2 3
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 17 7 3
Zaccharie Risacher S 30 16 5 0
Keaton Wallace 20 7 3 3
Dyson Daniels S 35 7 8 8
Onyeka Okongwu 26 7 11 0
Mouhamed Gueye 19 2 7 1
Vit Krejci 18 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 12-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
14%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
10%
4 Immanuel Quickley TOR
10%
5 Brandon Ingram TOR
10%
6 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
9%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
19%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram TOR 23.3 6.7 4.2
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.1 7.4 5.3
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.7 8.6 4.7
4 RJ Barrett TOR 22.5 5.3 4.1
5 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 19.6 3.5 3.8
6 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 17.6 6.5 3.1
7 Immanuel Quickley TOR 15.0 4.0 6.5
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.6 7.7 2.1
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 12.9 3.4 1.9
10 Dyson Daniels ATL 11.6 5.8 4.0
11 Jakob Poeltl TOR 8.3 7.2 1.7
12 Collin Murray-Boyles TOR 8.3 3.5 1.7
13 Sandro Mamukelashvili TOR 8.1 3.6 1.9
14 Gradey Dick TOR 7.5 2.3 0.8
15 Jamal Shead TOR 6.2 1.7 4.6
16 Vit Krejci ATL 6.1 2.0 1.0
17 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.9 3.7 1.2
18 Asa Newell ATL 5.8 3.5 0.8
19 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.5 1.7 3.2
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.2 2.2 1.7
21 Jamison Battle TOR 4.7 1.6 0.7
22 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.5 1.5 0.6
23 Ochai Agbaji TOR 4.3 2.4 0.9
24 N'Faly Dante ATL 2.2 4.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.