NBA games

CLE @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
148–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE39373339148
WSH26342728115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home WSH
78% 22%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 26 24 5 5
Darius Garland S 28 20 2 9
Evan Mobley S 28 18 10 3
Tyrese Proctor 19 17 2 3
Jarrett Allen S 26 16 14 3
Sam Merrill 18 14 2 2
Jaylon Tyson 23 10 4 2
De'Andre Hunter S 21 8 5 2
Nae'Qwan Tomlin 6 6 2 0
Larry Nance Jr. 14 5 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 28 25 2 3
Alex Sarr S 30 20 4 4
Tre Johnson S 29 19 3 1
Corey Kispert 20 16 3 4
Bub Carrington S 28 6 4 11
Justin Champagnie 19 6 11 2
Jamir Watkins 20 6 6 0
Tristan Vukcevic 6 4 0 0
AJ Johnson 9 4 0 2
Khris Middleton S 22 4 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Darius Garland · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Darius Garland makes 13-foot driving floating jump shot (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alex Sarr WSH
15%
2 De'Andre Hunter CLE
14%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
11%
5 Khris Middleton WSH
10%
6 Justin Champagnie WSH
9%
7 CJ McCollum WSH
9%
8 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
9 Jaylon Tyson CLE
8%
10 Larry Nance Jr. CLE
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
27%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.9 3.7 5.7
2 Evan Mobley CLE 21.4 8.1 4.9
3 Alex Sarr WSH 20.5 8.9 3.7
4 De'Andre Hunter CLE 19.3 4.8 3.1
5 Sam Merrill CLE 15.1 2.2 2.0
6 CJ McCollum WSH 13.8 3.5 3.3
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.4 7.7 1.9
8 Jaylon Tyson CLE 11.9 3.8 2.1
9 Khris Middleton WSH 10.8 4.6 2.6
10 Tre Johnson WSH 10.8 3.6 1.9
11 Marvin Bagley III WSH 8.2 4.9 1.7
12 Corey Kispert WSH 8.2 2.8 1.9
13 Bub Carrington WSH 7.6 3.6 3.8
14 Cam Whitmore WSH 7.5 2.7 1.2
15 Larry Nance Jr. CLE 6.2 4.0 1.6
16 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 6.2 3.4 2.4
17 Tyrese Proctor CLE 5.1 1.4 1.9
18 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 5.1 2.1 1.0
19 Nae'Qwan Tomlin CLE 5.0 1.9 0.8
20 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.0 3.1 0.7
21 Malaki Branham WSH 4.8 1.8 0.6
22 Will Riley WSH 4.5 1.9 1.1
23 Thomas Bryant CLE 4.1 1.9 0.8
24 Jamir Watkins WSH 3.3 2.6 0.5
25 Luke Travers CLE 2.9 1.7 0.7
26 AJ Johnson WSH 2.5 1.4 0.6
27 Anthony Gill WSH 2.0 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.