NBA games

BOS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
110–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS25262930110
ORL38212539123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ORL
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 36 32 9 3
Payton Pritchard S 32 27 2 4
Derrick White S 37 16 2 10
Josh Minott S 25 12 8 1
Anfernee Simons 18 11 2 2
Neemias Queta S 30 5 8 2
Sam Hauser 21 3 3 3
Luka Garza 13 2 0 0
Jordan Walsh 19 2 6 0
Hugo Gonzalez 9 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 37 27 6 6
Desmond Bane S 36 22 6 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 31 18 5 1
Paolo Banchero S 36 15 9 4
Jalen Suggs S 21 14 3 5
Anthony Black 33 13 4 4
Tristan da Silva 18 11 2 0
Jonathan Isaac 5 3 1 0
Tyus Jones 8 0 1 0
Goga Bitadze 15 0 7 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Suggs assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Payton Pritchard BOS
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Neemias Queta BOS
11%
6 Desmond Bane ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Josh Minott BOS
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
41%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 26.4 4.6 4.4
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.9 9.2 4.3
3 Franz Wagner ORL 21.9 5.2 3.8
4 Derrick White BOS 16.9 4.3 4.6
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.6 3.9 5.5
6 Anfernee Simons BOS 14.5 2.8 1.9
7 Desmond Bane ORL 14.0 3.8 3.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 12.4 7.5 1.9
9 Anthony Black ORL 12.1 3.6 2.8
10 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.4 3.2 4.5
11 Josh Minott BOS 10.2 5.8 1.4
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.9 3.4 1.6
13 Neemias Queta BOS 9.5 8.2 1.6
14 Sam Hauser BOS 8.9 2.9 1.5
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.9 5.5 1.0
16 Luka Garza BOS 5.3 3.4 0.8
17 Chris Boucher BOS 5.1 3.3 0.6
18 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 5.0 2.4 0.9
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.4 1.5 1.0
20 Jase Richardson ORL 4.2 1.5 1.3
21 Tyus Jones ORL 4.1 1.5 1.6
22 Noah Penda ORL 4.1 2.5 0.8
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 3.9 3.3 0.5
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.8 2.0 0.6
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.6 2.3 0.7
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 3.3 2.6 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.