NBA games

DEN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
107–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN26312426107
POR18351838109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (POR) / 9 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home POR
44% 56%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 34 22 6 3
Nikola Jokic S 37 21 14 9
Aaron Gordon S 32 14 5 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 22 11 2 2
Jonas Valanciunas 11 10 3 1
Peyton Watson 23 10 4 1
Cameron Johnson S 31 9 6 1
Bruce Brown 20 5 3 0
Christian Braun S 30 5 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 33 23 4 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 24 19 4 1
Jerami Grant 32 16 5 0
Toumani Camara S 30 14 2 3
Jrue Holiday S 32 11 3 13
Kris Murray 29 10 6 1
Donovan Clingan S 24 5 15 1
Blake Wesley 10 5 0 2
Robert Williams III 11 4 4 1
Rayan Rupert 6 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:36 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 1-foot dunk (Christian Braun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
4 Deni Avdija POR
10%
5 Jrue Holiday POR
10%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
7 Toumani Camara POR
9%
8 Christian Braun DEN
8%
9 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
10 Cameron Johnson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jamal Murray DEN 23.9 4.0 5.0
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 21.8 11.2 8.4
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.2 6.2 4.0
4 Jrue Holiday POR 19.9 4.7 6.8
5 Jerami Grant POR 19.1 4.2 1.9
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 18.5 5.0 2.4
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.1 4.6 2.4
8 Christian Braun DEN 13.0 4.0 2.7
9 Toumani Camara POR 10.7 4.1 2.9
10 Donovan Clingan POR 9.3 8.3 1.6
11 Cameron Johnson DEN 8.8 2.9 1.6
12 Peyton Watson DEN 8.8 3.8 1.9
13 Tim Hardaway Jr. DEN 8.2 1.9 1.3
14 Jonas Valanciunas DEN 7.2 4.7 1.5
15 Blake Wesley POR 6.7 2.7 3.0
16 Bruce Brown DEN 6.3 3.1 1.8
17 Kris Murray POR 6.1 3.0 1.1
18 Julian Strawther DEN 5.3 2.5 0.8
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 5.1 1.6 1.3
20 Matisse Thybulle POR 4.9 1.2 0.8
21 Yang Hansen POR 4.5 2.2 0.8
22 Duop Reath POR 4.3 1.3 0.7
23 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.2 1.9 0.8
24 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.2 1.7 0.6
25 Rayan Rupert POR 3.1 2.3 0.7
26 Spencer Jones DEN 2.5 1.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.