NBA games

LAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
117–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31243428117
MEM27422221112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MEM
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 39 44 12 6
Austin Reaves S 36 21 4 4
Jake LaRavia 23 13 5 2
Marcus Smart S 35 12 3 4
Deandre Ayton S 17 9 0 0
Rui Hachimura S 38 9 3 1
Dalton Knecht 15 5 2 1
Jarred Vanderbilt 14 2 4 1
Jaxson Hayes 23 2 7 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Wells S 27 16 7 0
Jock Landale S 25 16 5 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 15 4 1
Cedric Coward 26 13 10 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 24 12 2 5
Cam Spencer 19 12 0 3
Ja Morant S 31 8 1 7
Santi Aldama 26 7 10 4
Vince Williams Jr. 17 7 2 2
John Konchar 13 6 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
2 Ja Morant MEM
12%
3 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
4 Rui Hachimura LAL
10%
5 Deandre Ayton LAL
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL
7%
8 Jock Landale MEM
7%
9 Jake LaRavia LAL
7%
10 Marcus Smart LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
38%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic LAL 36.3 9.4 8.4
2 Austin Reaves LAL 28.6 5.1 8.0
3 Ja Morant MEM 25.7 4.4 6.9
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.0 5.1 2.0
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 16.0 3.8 2.1
6 Deandre Ayton LAL 13.7 10.1 1.9
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope MEM 12.7 3.2 3.8
8 Cedric Coward MEM 12.7 4.0 2.2
9 Jaylen Wells MEM 12.5 2.7 2.2
10 Jake LaRavia LAL 10.9 3.9 2.9
11 Santi Aldama MEM 10.5 6.6 2.1
12 Jock Landale MEM 9.8 5.4 1.5
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.3 3.4 1.7
14 Javon Small MEM 9.3 2.1 5.2
15 Marcus Smart LAL 8.2 1.6 1.8
16 Cam Spencer MEM 7.9 2.1 3.2
17 Jarred Vanderbilt LAL 7.0 5.4 2.0
18 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.2 1.3 2.6
19 Nick Smith Jr. LAL 6.0 1.9 1.5
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.8 5.3 1.5
21 Bronny James LAL 5.3 2.4 1.6
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper MEM 4.9 2.6 1.1
23 John Konchar MEM 4.8 3.6 1.0
24 PJ Hall MEM 4.4 2.8 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.