NBA games

NY @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
125–135
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY27263834125
CHI35372835135

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (CHI) / 9 (NY) games this season
NY away
home CHI
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 35 29 2 7
OG Anunoby S 36 26 4 3
Mikal Bridges S 38 23 4 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 22 10 4
Miles McBride 29 8 2 2
Jordan Clarkson 13 6 1 2
Mitchell Robinson S 20 4 11 2
Landry Shamet 15 4 1 0
Guerschon Yabusele 3 3 2 0
Tyler Kolek 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Josh Giddey S 38 32 10 9
Nikola Vucevic S 31 26 7 2
Ayo Dosunmu 29 22 4 9
Matas Buzelis S 29 13 0 1
Kevin Huerter 26 12 6 2
Jalen Smith 17 10 9 2
Patrick Williams 23 9 1 3
Tre Jones S 24 8 4 3
Isaac Okoro S 16 3 0 0
Julian Phillips 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes 24-foot three point jumper (OG Anunoby assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
3 Matas Buzelis CHI
10%
4 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
5 Josh Giddey CHI
9%
6 Nikola Vucevic CHI
7%
7 Miles McBride NY
7%
8 Mitchell Robinson NY
6%
9 Tre Jones CHI
6%
10 Landry Shamet NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
57%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.4 4.1 5.1
2 Josh Giddey CHI 18.9 7.6 6.8
3 Matas Buzelis CHI 17.5 4.7 1.6
4 Mikal Bridges NY 16.6 5.1 3.1
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 14.8 9.8 2.2
6 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 14.6 3.4 1.9
7 Nikola Vucevic CHI 14.4 10.3 3.8
8 OG Anunoby NY 14.1 5.7 2.3
9 Tre Jones CHI 12.4 3.6 5.8
10 Kevin Huerter CHI 12.4 3.6 3.0
11 Miles McBride NY 10.7 2.7 2.0
12 Patrick Williams CHI 9.4 3.5 2.5
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.4 1.9 1.5
14 Jevon Carter CHI 8.3 1.6 1.5
15 Isaac Okoro CHI 6.4 2.7 1.6
16 Jalen Smith CHI 6.2 4.1 1.0
17 Josh Hart NY 5.8 5.3 3.0
18 Landry Shamet NY 5.7 1.5 0.8
19 Tyler Kolek NY 5.7 1.6 1.9
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.5 1.7 0.6
21 Mitchell Robinson NY 4.3 8.2 0.4
22 Guerschon Yabusele NY 3.9 2.8 0.6
23 Pacome Dadiet NY 3.8 1.9 0.6
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 3.3 3.5 0.8
25 Mohamed Diawara NY 3.2 2.1 0.7
26 Dalen Terry CHI 2.9 2.1 1.5
27 Noa Essengue CHI 2.9 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.