NBA games

BOS @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
109–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS38302120109
PHI25322526108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (PHI) / 9 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home PHI
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 32 32 3 6
Anfernee Simons 29 19 4 2
Derrick White S 35 15 4 4
Payton Pritchard S 33 15 2 5
Luka Garza 15 9 5 1
Hugo Gonzalez 15 5 5 2
Xavier Tillman 13 5 4 1
Neemias Queta S 19 4 4 1
Sam Hauser 24 3 6 3
Josh Minott S 22 2 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 44 26 8 14
Joel Embiid S 25 20 6 3
VJ Edgecombe S 40 17 5 5
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 41 17 9 0
Quentin Grimes 33 16 2 3
Andre Drummond 12 6 2 0
Adem Bona 11 2 3 0
Jabari Walker S 11 2 1 0
Justin Edwards 12 2 4 1
Trendon Watford 11 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Payton Pritchard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Payton Pritchard makes 19-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 VJ Edgecombe PHI
13%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
4 Payton Pritchard BOS
10%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
6 Derrick White BOS
10%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
8 Neemias Queta BOS
8%
9 Josh Minott BOS
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
35%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.0 4.2 6.3
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.8 4.9 3.7
3 VJ Edgecombe PHI 21.8 5.4 5.0
4 Quentin Grimes PHI 20.0 4.8 4.4
5 Derrick White BOS 19.6 5.0 5.0
6 Joel Embiid PHI 18.0 5.8 4.8
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 16.4 4.8 5.6
8 Anfernee Simons BOS 15.9 3.3 2.3
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.0 5.7 2.1
10 Josh Minott BOS 10.6 6.1 1.5
11 Sam Hauser BOS 10.1 2.9 1.3
12 Neemias Queta BOS 8.4 8.4 1.3
13 Luka Garza BOS 7.5 4.4 1.0
14 Jabari Walker PHI 5.7 3.7 0.7
15 Chris Boucher BOS 5.2 4.0 0.6
16 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.9 2.5 0.7
17 Justin Edwards PHI 4.9 2.6 1.5
18 Andre Drummond PHI 4.9 5.8 0.7
19 Xavier Tillman BOS 4.7 3.3 1.1
20 Baylor Scheierman BOS 4.6 3.2 1.4
21 Johni Broome PHI 4.1 2.6 0.4
22 Adem Bona PHI 3.9 3.7 0.6
23 Eric Gordon PHI 3.3 0.9 0.6
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.3 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.