NBA games

ATL @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
128–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL32313431128
IND29301732108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (IND) / 9 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home IND
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 33 22 13 8
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 21 3 3
Dyson Daniels S 38 18 9 6
Kristaps Porzingis S 23 15 8 1
Onyeka Okongwu 26 14 9 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 13 1 1
Keaton Wallace 17 11 3 7
Luke Kennard 27 6 3 2
Mouhamed Gueye 16 6 6 0
N'Faly Dante 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 30 18 5 5
Jarace Walker S 28 17 3 3
Quenton Jackson S 22 15 4 4
Aaron Nesmith S 25 12 2 1
Mac McClung 19 12 2 0
Isaiah Jackson S 27 9 11 2
RayJ Dennis 26 8 5 5
Jay Huff 22 8 5 2
Ben Sheppard 29 4 7 1
Taelon Peter 8 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
18%
2 Kristaps Porzingis ATL
14%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
12%
4 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
11%
5 Aaron Nesmith IND
10%
6 Isaiah Jackson IND
9%
7 Jarace Walker IND
9%
8 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
9 Ben Sheppard IND
8%
10 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
21%
Layup
53%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam IND 23.6 7.4 5.0
2 Jalen Johnson ATL 21.0 7.0 3.7
3 Kristaps Porzingis ATL 18.3 6.2 3.0
4 Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL 17.0 3.6 3.2
5 Jarace Walker IND 13.6 5.9 4.2
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.3 7.6 1.9
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 11.9 3.5 1.3
8 Aaron Nesmith IND 11.7 3.8 1.6
9 Ben Sheppard IND 9.8 5.7 2.2
10 RayJ Dennis IND 9.7 2.7 4.0
11 Dyson Daniels ATL 8.5 5.3 3.1
12 Luke Kennard ATL 8.4 2.5 2.1
13 Quenton Jackson IND 7.0 2.4 1.6
14 Jacob Toppin ATL 6.6 1.8 1.3
15 Taelon Peter IND 6.5 2.8 1.9
16 Asa Newell ATL 6.4 4.0 0.6
17 Jay Huff IND 6.0 3.0 0.9
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 5.9 3.4 1.3
19 Vit Krejci ATL 5.1 1.9 0.6
20 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.9 1.7 2.8
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.4 3.4 0.8
22 Caleb Houstan ATL 4.3 1.1 0.3
23 Tony Bradley IND 4.3 3.5 0.6
24 N'Faly Dante ATL 2.4 5.2 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.