NBA games

BOS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
103–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS29223121103
DET26332520104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home DET
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 39 32 11 2
Payton Pritchard S 34 17 3 3
Sam Hauser S 27 16 5 1
Neemias Queta S 28 10 8 1
Luka Garza 15 10 4 0
Anfernee Simons 25 9 3 0
Derrick White S 38 4 9 5
Baylor Scheierman 15 3 1 1
Jordan Walsh 16 2 1 0
Xavier Tillman 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tobias Harris S 35 25 3 1
Jalen Duren S 31 18 9 1
Cade Cunningham S 40 16 3 14
Duncan Robinson S 32 15 3 2
Isaiah Stewart 21 8 5 0
Jaden Ivey 17 7 3 2
Ausar Thompson S 28 7 7 2
Javonte Green 7 3 1 0
Ronald Holland II 12 3 4 1
Caris LeVert 17 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Sam Hauser · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three pointer (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
13%
3 Derrick White BOS
12%
4 Cade Cunningham DET
10%
5 Payton Pritchard BOS
9%
6 Neemias Queta BOS
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Tobias Harris DET
7%
9 Baylor Scheierman BOS
6%
10 Duncan Robinson DET
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
30%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaylen Brown BOS 29.9 6.5 6.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 24.5 5.1 11.2
3 Derrick White BOS 19.1 6.0 6.0
4 Anfernee Simons BOS 17.7 3.2 3.8
5 Jalen Duren DET 17.4 10.2 2.4
6 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.9 4.4 5.6
7 Tobias Harris DET 11.8 4.3 2.7
8 Sam Hauser BOS 11.1 3.8 1.5
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 11.0 4.9 1.6
10 Neemias Queta BOS 10.9 9.6 1.2
11 Duncan Robinson DET 10.9 2.8 1.7
12 Javonte Green DET 9.5 3.0 1.3
13 Ronald Holland II DET 9.3 5.9 1.5
14 Ausar Thompson DET 8.9 6.1 2.1
15 Luka Garza BOS 8.8 4.8 1.2
16 Jaden Ivey DET 8.8 2.4 1.8
17 Daniss Jenkins DET 6.8 1.8 3.9
18 Caris LeVert DET 6.5 2.9 2.6
19 Paul Reed DET 5.5 4.3 1.5
20 Marcus Sasser DET 5.4 1.5 1.7
21 Hugo Gonzalez BOS 4.6 3.5 0.9
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 4.5 3.8 0.9
23 Bobi Klintman DET 4.1 2.4 1.1
24 Chris Boucher BOS 3.9 3.0 0.6
25 Baylor Scheierman BOS 3.9 1.8 0.8
26 Josh Minott BOS 3.2 1.5 0.7
27 Chaz Lanier DET 3.2 1.0 0.7
28 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.9 1.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.