NBA games

DAL @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
114–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL31441920114
NY2225242697

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NY
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Max Christie S 35 26 6 2
Naji Marshall S 33 19 8 4
Cooper Flagg S 28 18 7 3
Moussa Cisse 20 15 9 1
Klay Thompson 21 14 5 2
Brandon Williams 11 6 1 1
Ryan Nembhard 22 4 3 5
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 14 4 3 1
Jaden Hardy 2 3 0 0
Caleb Martin S 24 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 22 18 4
Jalen Brunson S 34 22 0 6
Mitchell Robinson 19 12 14 0
OG Anunoby S 31 9 6 2
Josh Hart S 28 8 6 3
Mikal Bridges S 33 7 3 3
Landry Shamet 23 6 1 1
Miles McBride 27 5 3 2
Tyler Kolek 3 2 0 0
Mohamed Diawara 3 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cooper Flagg · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Cooper Flagg makes 8-foot step back jumpshot (Dwight Powell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
2 Naji Marshall DAL
9%
3 Cooper Flagg DAL
9%
4 OG Anunoby NY
9%
5 Brandon Williams DAL
9%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
8 Max Christie DAL
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Caleb Martin DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
31%
Layup
11%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.0 3.7 5.6
2 Cooper Flagg DAL 20.0 5.7 5.3
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 19.8 9.9 3.8
4 OG Anunoby NY 19.1 5.8 3.2
5 Naji Marshall DAL 17.7 4.6 4.2
6 Miles McBride NY 17.6 3.0 3.7
7 Brandon Williams DAL 17.0 4.3 3.2
8 Max Christie DAL 16.5 4.1 3.2
9 Mikal Bridges NY 16.4 4.6 3.5
10 Josh Hart NY 14.1 7.1 5.7
11 Klay Thompson DAL 12.5 2.3 2.0
12 Landry Shamet NY 9.1 2.1 1.5
13 Jordan Clarkson NY 8.9 2.1 1.2
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.1 2.1 1.5
15 Ryan Nembhard DAL 7.3 2.1 4.6
16 Mitchell Robinson NY 5.9 9.1 1.3
17 Tyler Kolek NY 5.9 2.6 3.2
18 Dwight Powell DAL 5.7 5.7 1.0
19 Caleb Martin DAL 5.4 2.6 2.1
20 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl DAL 5.1 3.3 0.9
21 Miles Kelly DAL 4.9 1.6 0.9
22 Guerschon Yabusele NY 4.0 2.2 0.9
23 Moussa Cisse DAL 4.0 5.4 0.5
24 Mohamed Diawara NY 2.9 1.5 0.8
25 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 3.0 0.7
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.1 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.